XARTATOMS 研究 M104（草帽星系）的热气体晕：用 XMM-Newton 与 Chandra 的 X 射线光谱，测出晕内气体的温度、密度、熵随半径的分布，并检验“引力束缚的静力气体”与“反馈加热的风”两种图景。数据是 XMM 的三次观测（中心 0900170101 加两个偏置指向），拟合用 Sherpa 的 APEC 热等离子体模型加多种背景成分。当前科学基线是 v18 拟合管线。
XARTATOMS studies the hot-gas halo of M104 (the Sombrero Galaxy): using X-ray spectra from XMM-Newton and Chandra it measures how the temperature, density and entropy of the halo gas change with radius, and tests the two competing pictures — a gravitationally bound hydrostatic gas versus a feedback-heated wind. The data are three XMM observations (central 0900170101 plus two offset pointings); the fitting uses Sherpa with an APEC thermal-plasma model plus several background components. The current science baseline is the v18 fitting pipeline.
cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md（One-paragraph project summary）/ cognition-os/CLAUDE.md
项目骨架（最新）
Project skeleton (latest)
数据流：事件文件 → ESAS/SAS 提取 → v18 联合拟合 → 径向温度/熵轮廓 →（待做）2D 图。红色虚线为已搁置的 SZ 对比。 Data flow: event files → ESAS/SAS extraction → v18 joint fitting → radial kT/entropy profiles → (to do) 2D maps. The dashed red box is the parked SZ comparison.
四问目标（2026-10-14 PI 新增）
The four-question objectives (added by the PI on 2026-10-14)
| 目标Objective | 问题Question | 状态Status | 当前最佳数字（来源）Best current number (source) | 趋势Trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q-AQ-A | 哪种本地拟合策略给出的投影温度可靠？ | Which local fitting strategy gives a reliable projected temperature? | QuestionedQuestioned | 内区（2–4′）参考 = MOS2 单相机（S3）：四个背景错设臂全部通过（偏差 +0.008…+0.014 keV，覆盖率 0.71–0.77）；8–10′ 无策略合格（kT ≤ 1 keV 上界撞墙 4–11%，CXB×1.1 偏差 +0.035 keV）；视场边缘与 2D 图未合格；红队 RT-02 后 D48 收窄为 Questioned（MOS2 优于 MOS1 成立，但 MOS2 自身未被证明干净 — D50/T159）— cognition-os/insights/I067_*.md；cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D50。新增（2026-10-17 03:14Z，R036/D76）：“MOS2-only 是内区参考”只在 kT ∈ [0.45, 1.0] keV 成立——该区间外 MOS2 与 MOS1 的差超过 1σ，S3 的四个背景臂没有覆盖，因此 Q-A 的答案不能外推到区间外。新增（2026-10-16，R020/D64/B024）：PI 提出“v2 mask 把盘侧遮得太狠”，mask 深度阶梯阶段 A 检验后被红队 RT-17 推翻——v18 实际把源幂律（SrcPo）固定在 0，所谓“轻 mask 只偏 ≤ 0.012 keV”需要一个 v18 没有的自由幂律成分；按 v18 的真实合同，只遮延展源+恒星会把 2–4′ kT 推高 +0.18…+0.22 keV → 全套 v2 点源 mask 在所有 v18 合同谱、Fe-L 硬度与 2D 图上继续使用，窄阶段 B 取消。教训：写 brief/决策前必须读模型成分的最终状态（所有 set/freeze 之后），不能只读声明（B024） |
Inner (2–4′) reference = MOS2-only (S3): passes all four background-misspecification arms (bias +0.008…+0.014 keV, coverage 0.71–0.77); 8–10′ none qualified (kT ≤ 1 keV bound hits 4–11 %, CXB×1.1 bias +0.035 keV); edge and the 2D map unqualified; after red team RT-02, D48 is narrowed to Questioned (MOS2 preferred over MOS1 stands, but MOS2 itself is not shown clean — D50/T159) — cognition-os/insights/I067_*.md; cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D50. New (2026-10-17 03:14Z, R036/D76): "MOS2-only is the inner reference" holds only for kT in [0.45, 1.0] keV — outside that range the MOS2–MOS1 difference exceeds 1σ and S3's four background arms do not cover it, so Q-A's answer must not be extrapolated outside that range. New (2026-10-16, R020/D64/B024): the PI asked whether the v2 mask masks the disk side too hard; the mask-depth-ladder stage A test was overturned by red team RT-17 — v18 as run freezes the source power law (SrcPo) at 0, so the "lighter mask biases kT by only ≤ 0.012 keV" result needs a free power-law component that v18 does not have; under the literal v18 contract, masking only extended sources + stars pushes the 2–4′ kT up by +0.18…+0.22 keV → the full v2 point mask stays for every v18-contract spectrum, the Fe-L hardness and the 2D maps, and the narrow stage B is cancelled. Lesson: read a model component's final state (after all set/freeze lines), not its declaration, before writing a brief or a decision (B024) |
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| Q-BQ-B | Chandra+XMM 联合的 M104 温度 profile 是什么（10′ 内）？ | What is the Chandra+XMM kT profile of M104 (within 10′)? | AMBIGUOUS（功率不足）AMBIGUOUS (underpowered) | 径向 kT 问题（升 vs 平）开放，只由预注册的匹配合同测试（D55）判定：扇区谱外热（A2 +0.22 / A1 +0.37 keV 点对比，外区未合格）；单温 Fe-L 硬度平（0.77–0.79 keV，2–12′，I068/T160；两相混合可给出同样 H，RT-06）；Chandra-only 与单一温度 0.725 keV 一致（p = 0.54，D56；内环在 I3 瞄准芯片、外环在 FI 芯片，D61 更正 S3 说法；污染模型版本影响 ≤ 0.012 keV）——但红队 RT-23 已分诊（R028/D69）：这条不能用来反对 XMM 的外升，因为 Chandra 2–10′ 的“环”其实只有 35–62% 的部分环带（8–10′ 的两个 ObsID 各盖对面一半），而共同 kT 检验探不到 ΔkT ≲ 0.27 keV 的差（8–10′ 的 95% 上界 0.954 keV 包含 XMM 的 0.90）→ “Chandra 等温”既没有匹配的孔径、也没有功率去证实或否证 XMM 的升；“张力 = 合同不匹配”已撤回（R009）；测试暂停：Virgo 阶段 1 的口径谱缺 v2 mask（B023）→ 阶段 1b 重抽后已交付（D76c：9/9 口径、MANIFEST 506/506 OK、BACKSCAL 真实、REG 身份 PASS），但交付的 QPB 在全部 9 个口径里大了 1e6–1e7 倍（阶段 5 执行器发现，B026/R037/D77）→ 阶段 5 于 2026-10-17 03:14Z 重派、改用经验证的修复 back_pi（derived-QPB）。阶段 5 结果（2026-10-17 07:15Z，E049/T174/R040/D80；Provisional 暂定，derived-QPB）：预注册的 D55 判定 = AMBIGUOUS（含糊）——ΔkT = kT(8–10′) − kT(2–4′)（目标 0 = 不升）的 95% 区间：谱拟合 S4 天空 A +0.13（−0.21…+0.42）/ 天空 B +0.19（−0.004…+0.42，Δχ²(0) = 3.67 < 3.84）；Fe-L 硬度 天空 A +0.01（−0.32…+0.46）/ 天空 B +0.07（−0.13…+0.33）。最小可探测 ΔkT：0.43 keV 只是高斯近似（零假设 ΔkT 的 1.96·σ）；按预先声明的非参数定义（50% 功率、95% 区间），两种方法的最小可探测 ΔkT 都大于 0.50 keV（注入到 +0.50 仍未达到）。给大一学生的大白话：这些数据既没有显示、也没有排除约 0.5 keV 以内的上升——这个检验太弱（功率不足），它不是“没有上升”的证明。两个方法是同一个投影用了两遍（同一批 MOS2 谱），不是两次独立探测。注意事项：QPB 是推导出来的修复（交付的 back.pi 大 1e6–1e7 倍）；天空 B 是事后的，且拟合在同一个 8–10′ 谱上（把天空幅度作剖面扫描后，S 的区间变成 −0.054…≥+0.535，上端开放）；只用了一台相机。独立专家复核（Opus，D59a；来源 .agent/jobs/2026-10-17-stage5-expert-rederivation/REPORT.opus.md）确认 AMBIGUOUS，并给出上述两点修正（R042/D82）。P22 的 QPB 重查待定；红队 RT-15（0.7 keV 前景成分：v18 该槽位实为 0 且冻结 → D62 只是外区 kT 的附带假设）与 RT-16（固定 Z = 0.3：Z = 1.5 真值按 Z = 0.3 拟合在 8–10′ 只低 0.017 keV → 不是外升成因，D63）已分诊。组合压力对照的判据（D55/D71，RT-26 22:02Z 重放 D54/I069 算术后加的预先补充）：SP+CXB+QPB 的同号线性相加是 +0.142 keV，比 0.10 keV 的门还大，所以该对照按阶段 5 在阶段 1b 产品上实测的那一条组合臂来判，不按线性总和判；如果阶段 5 的组合臂本身把 ΔkT 移动 ≥ 0.10 keV，判定一律封顶为 AMBIGUOUS（实测组合臂的最大移动是 S 0.081 / H 0.006 keV，未触发该封顶）。 — cognition-os/experiments/E049_*.md；cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D80/D82；cognition-os/07_REVISION_LOG.md R040/R042 |
The radial kT question (rise vs flat) is open, decided only by the pre-registered matched-contract test (D55): sector spectra are hotter outside (A2 +0.22 / A1 +0.37 keV point contrasts, outer unqualified); the one-temperature Fe-L hardness is flat (0.77–0.79 keV over 2–12′, I068/T160; a two-phase mixture can give the same H, RT-06); Chandra-only is consistent with one temperature 0.725 keV (p = 0.54, D56; the inner ring is on the I3 aim-point chip and the outer ring on FI chips — D61 corrects the "S3" wording; the contamination-model version moves kT by ≤ 0.012 keV) — but red team RT-23 is triaged (R028/D69): this cannot be used against the XMM rise, because the Chandra 2–10′ "rings" are only 35–62 % partial annuli (the two 8–10′ ObsIDs cover opposite halves) and the common-kT test cannot detect a ΔkT below ≈ 0.27 keV (the 8–10′ 95 % upper bound of 0.954 keV contains the XMM 0.90) → "Chandra isothermal" has neither a matched aperture nor the power to corroborate or refute the XMM rise; "tension = contract mismatch" is withdrawn (R009); the test was paused: the Virgo stage-1 aperture spectra lack the v2 mask (B023) → stage 1b has since been delivered (D76c: 9/9 apertures, MANIFEST 506/506 OK, real BACKSCAL, REG identity PASS), but the delivered QPB is 1e6–1e7× too large in all 9 apertures (found by the stage-5 executor, B026/R037/D77) → stage 5 was re-dispatched on 2026-10-17 03:14Z on the validated repair back.pi (derived-QPB). Stage 5's result (2026-10-17 07:15Z, E049/T174/R040/D80; Provisional, derived-QPB): the pre-registered D55 verdict is AMBIGUOUS — the 95 % intervals for ΔkT = kT(8–10′) − kT(2–4′) (target 0 = no rise) are: the spectral fit S4 sky A +0.13 (−0.21…+0.42) / sky B +0.19 (−0.004…+0.42, Δχ²(0) = 3.67 < 3.84); the Fe-L hardness sky A +0.01 (−0.32…+0.46) / sky B +0.07 (−0.13…+0.33). The minimum detectable ΔkT: 0.43 keV is only the Gaussian approximation (1.96·σ of the null ΔkT); under the pre-declared non-parametric definition (50 % power, 95 % interval) the minimum detectable ΔkT is larger than 0.50 keV for both methods (not reached up to +0.50). In plain words for a first-year student: these data neither show nor exclude a rise below about 0.5 keV — the test is too weak (underpowered), and it is not a "no rise". The two methods are one projection applied twice (the same MOS2 spectra), not two independent detections. Caveats: the QPB is a derived repair (the delivered back.pi is 1e6–1e7× too large); sky B is post hoc and was fitted on the same 8–10′ spectrum (with the sky amplitudes profiled, S's interval becomes −0.054…≥+0.535, its upper end open); one camera only. An independent expert re-derivation (Opus, D59a; source .agent/jobs/2026-10-17-stage5-expert-rederivation/REPORT.opus.md) confirms AMBIGUOUS and supplies those two corrections (R042/D82). The P22 QPB re-check is pending; red teams RT-15 (a 0.7 keV foreground component: that v18 slot is actually 0 and frozen → D62 is only a stated assumption for the outer kT) and RT-16 (fixed Z = 0.3: a Z = 1.5 truth fitted with Z = 0.3 reads only 0.017 keV low at 8–10′ → not the cause of the rise, D63) are triaged. The criterion for the combined-stress control (D55/D71; a pre-data addendum made by RT-26 at 22:02Z after replaying the arithmetic of D54/I069): the SP+CXB+QPB same-sign linear sum is +0.142 keV, larger than the 0.10 keV gate, so that control is judged on the measured stage-5 combined arm on the stage-1b products, not on the linear sum; if the stage-5 combined arm itself shifts ΔkT by ≥ 0.10 keV, the verdict is capped at AMBIGUOUS (the measured combined arm's largest shift is S 0.081 / H 0.006 keV, so that cap was not triggered). — cognition-os/experiments/E049_*.md; cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D80/D82; cognition-os/07_REVISION_LOG.md R040/R042 |
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| Q-CQ-C | 为何 ~13′ 亮度反而比内侧和 15–30′ 更亮？ | Why is the intensity brighter at ~13′ than inside and at 15–30′? | Resolved: artefactResolved: artefact | 假象（Provisional，I065）：flux 已是每 arcmin²（B020），旧 flux/area 双重归一；裸 SB 比 1.37，冻结 kT 后 1.07；图像 1.041±0.068 无超出；WARP 星系团拟合为 0 — cognition-os/insights/I065_*.md；经受住红队 RT-01（4 条次要、0 条实质；图像检验 −2.7σ 支持无超出，I065 修订）。2026-10-16 23:24Z：红队 RT-28 已分诊（R033/D73）——“图/v18 比值 1.00 → 3.32 沿径向上升”不是物理上升：它的 Angle1 行不可重放（R7-9 没有 .fitting 会话）、不可复现（R9-11 有三代，CSV 比可重放会话高 58%）或不显著（R11-13 Δstat 1.36；R12-14 Δstat 0.0），而可复现的 Angle2 是平的 1.26 → 1.18；图内检验（E041：R11–13/R9–11 = 0.949 ± 0.029 / 1.029 ± 0.037）仍显示无 13′ 超出 → R030 的“无像过剩不成立”本身被撤回，图/v18 分支不可检验，直到每个区域钉住一个 v18 世代（提案 P21：CoPI，需 PI；在钉住的 v18 合同上重跑 Angle1 R7-9…R12-14，也补上缺失的会话）。开放：外环拟合方法；15–45′ profile 为 Questioned（E039：偏移拟合简并/不自洽，需 0501 ODF + Virgo 重处理） |
Artefact (Provisional, I065): the saved flux is already per arcmin² (B020), so the old flux/area double-normalised; bare-SB ratio 1.37, 1.07 with kT frozen; images 1.041±0.068 show no excess; the WARP cluster fits to 0 — cognition-os/insights/I065_*.md; it survived red team RT-01 (4 minor, 0 material objections; the image test at −2.7σ supports no excess, I065 amendment). 2026-10-16 23:24Z: red team RT-28 is triaged (R033/D73) — the "image/v18 ratio 1.00 → 3.32 rising radially" is not a physical rise: its Angle1 rows are unreplayable (R7-9 has no .fitting session), unreproducible (R9-11 exists in three generations, the CSV 58 % above the replayable session) or non-significant (R11-13 Δstat 1.36; R12-14 Δstat 0.0), while the reproducible Angle2 is flat at 1.26 → 1.18; the image-internal test (E041: R11–13/R9–11 = 0.949 ± 0.029 / 1.029 ± 0.037) still shows no 13′ excess → R030's "no image excess is false" is itself withdrawn, and the image/v18 branch is not testable until one v18 generation per region is pinned (proposed P21: CoPI, needs the PI; re-run Angle1 R7-9…R12-14 on the pinned v18 contract, which also supplies the missing session). Open: the outer-ring fit method; the 15–45′ profile is Questioned (E039: offset fits degenerate/inconsistent; needs the 0501 ODF + Virgo re-reduction) |
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| Q-DQ-D | 2D 强度图 + 2D 温度图（区分 feedback 与引力束缚气体） | 2D intensity map + 2D kT map (feedback vs gravitationally bound gas) | OpenOpen | 亮度图已完成；2D 代理图（阶段 2，E038）：Fe-L × 象限锚点；联合 MOS2+pn0 的小轴 vs 盘对比在 ≲ 0.08–0.11 keV 内（校准区间，随半径/几何变化，非对称：±45° 2–5′ [−0.056,+0.076] keV）——对比度响应 R≈0.67–1.0 决定灵敏度；N>S 只是提示（跨臂族 p≈1），不是探测（E038 + RT-07 修订）— cognition-os/experiments/E038_*.md（D49）。新增（2026-10-16）：2D 强度（E042/R016）— 2–5′ 的盘对齐不对称（小轴/盘 0.674 ± 0.100）与平滑 β 椭圆率一致（注入预测 0.752 [0.656, 0.846]），≥ +30% 小轴双锥在 2–5′ 被排除；2D kT（E043/R018）— 最佳估计器 = Fe-L 2 能带 + MOS1（自由归一）在 cone45 bin 上（σ ×1.12，注入无偏），但只适用于 3 相机共同足迹（面积的 56%），第二臂一致；生产图（P12/E045）：逐 bin 数值复现 阶段 3，读数 = 2–5′ 无小轴 vs 盘对比、内区 N−S +0.10 keV 提示（仅一种方法，待定；东箭头曾画成朝西，修正中，修好前不展示该图）。折叠 2D kT 图 v2（E046/T171，Provisional 暂定，见状态页 §2h）：四象限关于光学长/短轴折叠（每箱约 4 倍计数），主估计器 E1 = MOS2 + pn0，v2 mask 全程应用；2–12′ 的逐箱 kT 中位带为 0.70–0.80 keV（逐箱范围 0.53–0.89 keV，全局 0.736 keV [0.723, 0.748]，8/21 箱在带外——措辞按 RT-20/D68/R025 收窄），全角度斜率 +0.009 keV/角分（95 % [−0.003, +0.020]，+1.5σ）→ 对这种单温代理而言无 ≥ 2σ 的内冷外热；每 5′ 升 0.1 keV 的梯度在 E046 的单温代理注入里 91% 的次数能被找回（仅这一个温代理的自检；与真实逐楔 2–8′ 检验对应的统计量在 E047 端到端模拟里功率只有 27–36%，所以这 91% 不是探测功率）；盘楔外箱 0.85–0.88 vs 小轴楔 0.61–0.77 keV 只是提示（≈ 1.4σ，pn0 主导、近视场边缘）；MOS2 与 pn0 逐箱一致（p = 0.60）；pn0 QPB 按 M104 自己的 0.772 ± 0.016 缩放会把斜率推到 ≈ 2σ → 趋势对背景敏感（缩放仅测试用）；< 2′ 核被 mask 遮住，冷却流在此不可检验；E045 的内区 N−S +0.10 keV 提示经 RT-19 多重比较后降为 Questioned（R022）— cognition-os/experiments/E046_*.md |
Intensity map done; the 2D proxy map (stage 2, E038): Fe-L × quadrant anchors; the joint MOS2+pn0 minor-axis vs disk contrast lies within ≲ 0.08–0.11 keV (calibrated intervals, radius/geometry-dependent, asymmetric: ±45° 2–5′ [−0.056,+0.076] keV) — the contrast response R≈0.67–1.0 sets the sensitivity; N>S is only a hint (cross-arm familywise p≈1), not a detection (E038 + RT-07 amendment) — cognition-os/experiments/E038_*.md (D49). New (2026-10-16): 2D intensity (E042/R016) — the 2–5′ disk-aligned asymmetry (minor/disk 0.674 ± 0.100) is consistent with smooth β ellipticity (injection prediction 0.752 [0.656, 0.846]); a ≥ +30 % minor-axis bicone is excluded at 2–5′; 2D kT (E043/R018) — the best estimator is the Fe-L 2-band + MOS1 (free normalisation) on cone45 bins (σ ×1.12, unbiased in injections), but only on the 3-camera common footprint (56 % of the area); the second arm agrees; the production maps (P12/E045) replay stage 3 exactly and read: no minor-axis vs disk contrast at 2–5′, an inner N−S +0.10 keV hint (one method only, pending; the East arrow was once drawn toward West — the fix is in progress and the map is not shown until it is). The folded 2D kT map v2 (E046/T171, Provisional; see state §2h): the four quadrants folded about the optical major/minor axes (≈4× counts per bin), primary estimator E1 = MOS2 + pn0, the v2 mask applied throughout; the per-bin kT over 2–12′ has a median band of 0.70–0.80 keV (per-bin range 0.53–0.89 keV; global 0.736 keV [0.723, 0.748]; 8/21 bins outside the band — wording narrowed per RT-20/D68/R025) and the all-angle slope is +0.009 keV/arcmin (95 % [−0.003, +0.020], +1.5σ) → no inner-cool/outer-hot trend at ≥ 2σ for this one-temperature proxy; a gradient of +0.1 keV per 5′ is recovered 91 % of the time in E046's own one-temperature-proxy injection (that proxy's self-test only; the statistic matching the real per-wedge 2–8′ test has a power of only 27–36 % in the E047 end-to-end mock, so this 91 % is not a detection power); the disk wedge's outer cells 0.85–0.88 vs the minor wedge 0.61–0.77 keV are suggestive only (≈ 1.4σ, pn0-driven, near the field edge); MOS2 and pn0 agree bin by bin (p = 0.60); scaling pn0's QPB to M104's own 0.772 ± 0.016 pushes the slope to ≈ 2σ → the trend is background-sensitive (the scaling is test-only); the core inside 2′ is masked, so a cooling flow cannot be tested here; E045's inner N−S +0.10 keV hint is downgraded to Questioned after RT-19's multiplicity check (R022) — cognition-os/experiments/E046_*.md |
2D 温度图 v2（四象限折叠，E046/T171，暂定）
The 2D kT map v2 (four quadrants folded, E046/T171, Provisional)
总览图暂不展示（RT-32 的 OBJ-9，2026-10-17 04:06Z）：E046 的六联总览图含一个显示缺陷（东箭头被画成朝西），而红队 RT-32 用 sha256 证实本手册此前嵌入的副本与修复前的 08:41Z 文件逐字节相同，项目里不存在任何修复后的版本 → 按第 13 步自己的承诺，本页不再展示该图；无缺陷的分图（折叠温度图两档、径向剖面、对称模型展示、偏差图）与全部数字见状态页 §2h。数值本身不受影响：2–12′ 的逐箱 kT 中位带为 0.70–0.80 keV（逐箱范围 0.53–0.89 keV，全局 0.736 keV），全角度斜率 +0.009 keV/角分（+1.5σ）→ 对这种单温代理而言无 ≥ 2σ 的内冷外热。
The overview figure is not shown for now (RT-32's OBJ-9, 2026-10-17 04:06Z): E046's six-panel overview carries a display defect (the East arrow drawn toward West), and red team RT-32 verified by sha256 that the copy this handbook had embedded is byte-identical to the pre-fix 08:41Z file, with no fixed version existing anywhere in the project → per Step 13's own promise, this page no longer shows that figure; the defect-free component figures (the folded temperature maps on both colour scales, the radial profiles, the symmetric model display, the deviation map) and all the numbers are on the state page §2h. The values themselves are unaffected: the per-bin kT over 2–12′ has a median band of 0.70–0.80 keV (per-bin range 0.53–0.89 keV; global 0.736 keV) and the all-angle slope is +0.009 keV/arcmin (+1.5σ) → no inner-cool/outer-hot trend at ≥ 2σ for this one-temperature proxy.
更早的科学目标
Older science objectives
| 目标Objective | 状态Status | 当前最佳数字（来源）Best current number (source) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 密度/熵轮廓（S06 主线） | Density/entropy profile (S06 main line) | ProvisionalProvisional | K ≈ 67 → 407 keV cm²（10–43 kpc）；t_cool ≈ 10 → 137 Gyr — figure/radial_thermo_profiles_v18/entropy_cooling_time_profile_v18_v15beta.csv。kpc 用 D = 11.3 Mpc（1′ = 3.287 kpc，build_m104_radial_thermo_profiles.py:40；该距离未记录在 cognition-os）——与 2D kT 图的 8.9 Mpc 不同，见状态页 §1a |
K ≈ 67 → 407 keV cm² (10–43 kpc); t_cool ≈ 10 → 137 Gyr — figure/radial_thermo_profiles_v18/entropy_cooling_time_profile_v18_v15beta.csv. kpc uses D = 11.3 Mpc (1′ = 3.287 kpc, build_m104_radial_thermo_profiles.py:40; that distance is recorded nowhere in cognition-os) — a different distance from the 2D kT figures' 8.9 Mpc; see the state page §1a |
| SZ / X 射线张力（~2 倍差异） | SZ / X-ray tension (~2× discrepancy) | ParkedParked | X 射线导出 SZ 比参考高约 2 倍；数据版本问题 — cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md（S04） |
X-ray-derived SZ is ~2× the reference; data-version issue — cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md (S04) |
未解问题
Open problems
| 问题Problem | 为什么重要Why it matters | 最佳假设Best hypothesis | 下一个检验Next test | 负责人Owner | 状态Status | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q-A：无策略被认证；全网格验证未跑，需加速 | Q-A: no strategy certified; the full validation grid has not run and needs acceleration | 没有“谁对谁错”的判据，任何温度图都建立在未验证的方法上 | Without a criterion, every temperature map rests on an unvalidated method | 内区参考已收窄（D50：MOS2 优于 MOS1 成立，MOS2 自身未证明干净；R036 再收窄：“MOS2-only 是内区参考”只在 kT ∈ [0.45, 1.0] keV 成立——在该区间外，MOS2 与 MOS1 的差超过 1σ，S3 的四个背景臂没有覆盖）；外区/边缘仍不合格——S4 宽 kT 多起点合同的测试背景偏差 ≤ 0.05 keV，但严格合格门失败 → 外区 kT 只作探索性引用；D54 修订（RT-09）：±0.05 keV 是逐臂中位偏差包络，逐拟合 68% 散布 ≈ ±0.15 keV 须由拟合区间给出，SP+CXB+QPB 组合压力未测（同号和 +0.14 keV @0.7 keV），撞顶 3/480（D51/D54/T162/I069） | The inner reference is narrowed (D50: MOS2 preferred over MOS1 stands; MOS2 itself not shown clean; R036 narrows it further: "MOS2-only is the inner reference" holds only for kT in [0.45, 1.0] keV — outside that range the MOS2–MOS1 difference exceeds 1σ and S3's four background arms do not cover it); outer/edge still not qualified — the S4 wide-kT multi-start contract sees tested background biases ≤ 0.05 keV but fails the strict gate → outer kT stays exploratory; D54 amendment (RT-09): the ±0.05 keV is the median-bias envelope of one-at-a-time stress arms, the per-fit 68 % scatter ≈ ±0.15 keV must come from the fit interval, the combined SP+CXB+QPB stress is untested (same-sign sum +0.14 keV at 0.7 keV), ceiling hits 3/480 (D51/D54/T162/I069) | 阶段 3/4 已完成（S4 外区/边缘/2D 均未过严格门）；mask 深度阶梯阶段 A 的"内区谱可轻 mask"结论被 RT-17 推翻（R020/D64：v18 把 SrcPo 固定在 0，轻 mask 偏 2–4′ kT +0.18…+0.22 keV → 全套 v2 点源 mask 保留，窄阶段 B 取消）；阶段 5 匹配合同测试（D55）已于 2026-10-17 03:14Z 重派（D76c）并已于 07:15Z 完成：判定 = AMBIGUOUS（功率不足）（E049/T174/R040/D80；derived-QPB）——谱拟合 S4 的 ΔkT(8–10′−2–4′) = +0.13（天空 A，95% −0.21…+0.42）/ +0.19（天空 B，−0.004…+0.42），Fe-L 硬度 +0.01（−0.32…+0.46）/ +0.07（−0.13…+0.33）；最小可探测 ΔkT 的高斯近似是 0.43 keV，而按预先声明的非参数定义（50% 功率、95% 区间）两种方法都 > 0.50 keV（R042/D82）→ 这个检验太弱，不是“没有上升”；详见本表 Q-B 行与提案 P23 | Stages 3/4 are done (S4 fails the strict gate in the outer/edge/2D cells); mask-depth-ladder stage A's "lighter mask safe for inner spectra" conclusion was overturned by RT-17 (R020/D64: v18 freezes SrcPo at 0, a lighter mask biases the 2–4′ kT by +0.18…+0.22 keV → the full v2 point mask stays, the narrow stage B is cancelled); the stage-5 matched-contract test (D55) was re-dispatched on 2026-10-17 03:14Z (D76c) and finished at 07:15Z: the verdict is AMBIGUOUS (underpowered) (E049/T174/R040/D80; derived-QPB) — the spectral fit S4's ΔkT(8–10′−2–4′) = +0.13 (sky A, 95 % −0.21…+0.42) / +0.19 (sky B, −0.004…+0.42) and the Fe-L hardness +0.01 (−0.32…+0.46) / +0.07 (−0.13…+0.33); the minimum detectable ΔkT's Gaussian approximation is 0.43 keV, while under the pre-declared non-parametric definition (50 % power, 95 % interval) both methods exceed 0.50 keV (R042/D82) → this test is too weak; it is not a "no rise"; see this table's Q-B row and proposal P23 | I067/D48–D50；E044/D60；阶段 5 = D55/E049I067/D48–D50; E044/D60; stage 5 = D55/E049 | 待定 PendingPending |
| Q-B：预注册的匹配合同检验（阶段 5）已给出 AMBIGUOUS——功率不足，需更强的检验（P23） | Q-B: the pre-registered matched-contract test (stage 5) returned AMBIGUOUS — underpowered, so a stronger test (P23) is needed | 10′ 内的 Chandra+XMM 温度 profile 是四问之一，也是温度图的输入 | The Chandra+XMM kT profile within 10′ is one of the four questions and an input to the temperature map | J-linked（ACIS CXB 自由）0.718/0.757/0.782/0.934 keV；Chandra-only 与 v18 每 ≤1σ 一致；但 c_ACIS 常压在 0.7 下界、c_MOS2 在 4′ 外压 1.3 上界 → 联合归一化 Questioned（T155） | J-linked (ACIS CXB free) 0.718/0.757/0.782/0.934 keV; Chandra-only agrees with v18 within 1σ per ring; but c_ACIS often sits at its 0.7 lower bound and c_MOS2 at 1.3 beyond 4′ → joint normalisation Questioned (T155) | 阶段 5 已完成（2026-10-17 07:15Z，E049/T174/R040/D80；Provisional 暂定，derived-QPB）：预注册的 D55 判定 = AMBIGUOUS（含糊）——功率不足，不是“没有上升”。ΔkT = kT(8–10′) − kT(2–4′)（目标 0）的 95% 区间：谱拟合 S4 天空 A +0.13（−0.21…+0.42）/ 天空 B +0.19（−0.004…+0.42，Δχ²(0) = 3.67 < 3.84）；Fe-L 硬度 天空 A +0.01（−0.32…+0.46）/ 天空 B +0.07（−0.13…+0.33）。最小可探测 ΔkT：0.43 keV 只是高斯近似（零假设 ΔkT 的 1.96·σ）；按预先声明的非参数定义（50% 功率、95% 区间）两种方法都大于 0.50 keV（注入到 +0.50 仍未达到）→ 用现有数据无法裁决 0.1 keV 量级的问题。两个方法是同一个投影用了两遍（同一批 MOS2 谱）。天空 B 是事后的、且拟合在同一个 8–10′ 谱上（剖面扫描后 S 的区间为 −0.054…≥+0.535，上端开放）；只用一台相机。独立专家复核（Opus，D59a）确认 AMBIGUOUS（.agent/jobs/2026-10-17-stage5-expert-rederivation/REPORT.opus.md，R042/D82）。下一步 = 提案 P23（见本表最后一行）：MOS2+pn0 在 8–10′、天空用偏置指向 0501/0601 固定，预期最小可探测 ≈ 0.3 keV（Provisional 暂定）→ 待定 PI。P22 的 QPB 重查待定（3/9 个口径已重新生成并通过量级门 R = 0.88–0.95，其余约 10:05Z 完成）。红队 RT-39（阶段 5 判定的措辞，2026-10-17，报告已出、尚未分诊）提了 12 条异议，但没有一条推翻 AMBIGUOUS：三条 D55 门（RISE 的下界、NO RESOLVED RISE 的上界、PROJECTION-COMPATIBLE 的触发条件）全部按其字面失败，所以 AMBIGUOUS 成立；被改变的是理由与措辞——(a) “0.43 keV 是 50% 功率下的最小可探测值”这个说法不成立（实测功率在 Δ = +0.50 处最高只有 19%，执行器自己的 JSON 里 50% 功率那一栏是空的）；(b) 天空 B 的 95% 下界在插值网格上会在 −0.0150…+0.0135 keV 之间摆动（Δχ²(0) 在 3.22–4.31 之间跨过 3.84 的门）→ “差 0.004 keV 没过门”这句话没有误差棒；(c) “主天空 B”其实是在 8–10′ 这个环上自己拟合出来的（不是独立确定），那 0.004 keV 的边缘是从这个循环性继承来的；(d) 外环硬度估计的 95% “区间”有 41.8% 的样本被裁剪在反演分支端（0.45/1.22 keV），σ_D 的约 1/3 是设计造成的、不是数据；(e) QPB 尺度扫描（×0.80–1.40，已执行）显示天空 A 的 ΔkT 在 ×0.85 处翻号（−0.006 keV）并在 ±10% QPB 变化里摆动 ±0.10 keV，而天空 B 保持 +0.129…+0.228 → “QPB 锚点系统误差 ≈ 0”说得太强；(f) 2T 那一支只死在参数边界上（kT2 顶在预先注册的 5 keV 帽），4 条接受判据里满足了 3 条；(g) 内环 R2-4 的单温拟合本身被正式拒绝（p = 0.010 天空 B / 0.019 天空 A）→ ΔkT 的区间可能偏窄；(h) E049 的控制 breached 清单少列了一条（天空 A 的天空归一 ×1.2，S：−0.114 keV）。→ 判定不变，但这些都进了 E049 的措辞与限制清单；分诊待定。其他红队：RT-33/RT-34/RT-35 → R038/D78；RT-36（P19/P20 设计）无报告死亡；RT-37（Q-B 与文献对照，7 条实质）与 RT-38（P19/P21 设计，7 条）已于 10:14Z 分诊 → R044/D84；RT-40（P22 bundle）与 RT-41（折叠图统计量）运行中。见本页“研究进展”与状态页 §5 |
Stage 5 is done (2026-10-17 07:15Z, E049/T174/R040/D80; Provisional, derived-QPB): the pre-registered D55 verdict is AMBIGUOUS — underpowered, not a "no rise". The 95 % intervals for ΔkT = kT(8–10′) − kT(2–4′) (target 0) are: the spectral fit S4 sky A +0.13 (−0.21…+0.42) / sky B +0.19 (−0.004…+0.42, Δχ²(0) = 3.67 < 3.84); the Fe-L hardness sky A +0.01 (−0.32…+0.46) / sky B +0.07 (−0.13…+0.33). The minimum detectable ΔkT: 0.43 keV is only the Gaussian approximation (1.96·σ of the null ΔkT); under the pre-declared non-parametric definition (50 % power, 95 % interval) both methods exceed 0.50 keV (not reached up to +0.50) → a 0.1 keV decision is out of reach with the existing data. The two methods are one projection applied twice (the same MOS2 spectra). Sky B is post hoc and was fitted on the same 8–10′ spectrum (profiled, S's interval is −0.054…≥+0.535, its upper end open); one camera only. An independent expert re-derivation (Opus, D59a) confirms AMBIGUOUS (.agent/jobs/2026-10-17-stage5-expert-rederivation/REPORT.opus.md, R042/D82). The next step is proposal P23 (the last row of this table): MOS2+pn0 on 8–10′ with the sky fixed from the offset pointings 0501/0601, projected minimum detectable ≈ 0.3 keV (Provisional) → pending the PI. The P22 QPB re-check is pending (3 of 9 apertures regenerated and accepted, magnitude gate R = 0.88–0.95; the rest due about 10:05Z). Red team RT-39 (the stage-5 verdict's wording, 2026-10-17, reported, not yet triaged) filed 12 objections and not one overturns AMBIGUOUS: all three D55 gates (RISE's lower bound, NO RESOLVED RISE's upper bound, PROJECTION-COMPATIBLE's trigger) fail as literally written, so AMBIGUOUS stands; what changes is the reason and the wording — (a) "0.43 keV is the minimum detectable value at 50 % power" does not hold (the measured power tops out at 19 % at Δ = +0.50, and the executor's own JSON has an empty 50 %-power field); (b) sky B's 95 % lower bound swings between −0.0150…+0.0135 keV with the interpolation grid (Δχ²(0) straddles the 3.84 gate between 3.22 and 4.31) → "it missed the gate by 0.004 keV" has no error bar; (c) the "primary sky B" is itself a fit on the 8–10′ annulus (not an independent determination), so that 0.004 keV margin is inherited from that circularity; (d) 41.8 % of the outer hardness estimator's 95 % samples are clipped at the inversion branch ends (0.45/1.22 keV), so about 1/3 of σ_D is design, not data; (e) a QPB scale sweep (×0.80–1.40, executed) shows sky A's ΔkT flips sign at ×0.85 (−0.006 keV) and swings ±0.10 keV for a ±10 % QPB change, while sky B stays +0.129…+0.228 → "the QPB anchor systematic ≈ 0" is too strong; (f) the 2T arm died only on a parameter bound (kT2 pinned at the pre-registered 5 keV cap) with 3 of its 4 acceptance criteria met; (g) the inner R2-4 one-temperature fit is itself formally rejected (p = 0.010 sky B / 0.019 sky A) → ΔkT's interval may be too narrow; (h) E049's breached-control list omits one arm (sky A's sky-norm ×1.2, S: −0.114 keV). → the verdict is unchanged, but all of this enters E049's wording and limits list; triage pending. Other red teams: RT-33/RT-34/RT-35 → R038/D78; RT-36 (the P19/P20 designs) died without a report; RT-37 (Q-B vs the literature, 7 material) and RT-38 (the P19/P21 designs, 7 objections) were triaged at 10:14Z → R044/D84; RT-40 (the P22 bundle) and RT-41 (the folded-map statistic) are running. See "Research progress" on this page and state §5 |
阶段 5 = D55（E049）；D80/D82；R040/R042；P23 待定 PIstage 5 = D55 (E049); D80/D82; R040/R042; P23 pending the PI | AMBIGUOUS（功率不足）AMBIGUOUS (underpowered) |
| v18 的 as-run 能段（0.375–9.0 keV）与损坏的 RASS 过滤器对已存 kT 的影响（B025） | The effect of v18's as-run band (0.375–9.0 keV) and the broken RASS filter on the saved kT (B025) | 所有引用 v18 温度的数字都建立在这个合同上；合同此前被误述为 0.4–3.2 keV，而 3.2–9 keV 的影响从未测量 | Every number quoting a v18 temperature rests on this contract; the contract was mis-stated as 0.4–3.2 keV and the effect of the 3.2–9 keV range was never measured | as run：源 0.375–9.0 keV、背景 0.375–6.23 keV（Sherpa notice/ignore 取并集，RT-18 从保存会话重放证实）；SrcPo 不在拟合表达式里；RASS 过滤器损坏（21.9% 的 noticed 信号落在原定 0.2 keV 以下，未重放）；16/65 个已存 kT 的 conf() 区间越出参数界 → 无效 | As run: source 0.375–9.0 keV, background 0.375–6.23 keV (Sherpa's notice/ignore take a union; RT-18 confirmed this by replaying the saved session); SrcPo is absent from the fitted expression; the RASS filter is corrupt (21.9 % of its noticed signal lies below the intended 0.2 keV, not yet replayed); 16/65 saved kT conf() intervals extend outside the parameter bounds → invalid | P16：恢复 7 个会话并引用其 noticed 能段；重拟合 (a) as restored 复现已存 kT（±0.005 keV 内）、(b) 0.4–3.2 keV、(c) RASS 修复、(d) 两者都改，给出 keV 与 σ 的 ΔkT 表；初步结果：R2-4 A1 从 0.4–3.2 keV 改回 as-run 使 kT 变化 −0.021 keV，且已存会话不在其最小值（重拟合 −0.018 keV，stat 72.8 → 42.4） | P16: restore 7 sessions with their noticed ranges quoted; refits (a) as restored reproduces the saved kT within 0.005 keV, (b) 0.4–3.2 keV, (c) RASS fixed, (d) both, with a ΔkT table in keV and σ; partial result: for R2-4 A1, going from 0.4–3.2 keV back to as-run changes kT by −0.021 keV, and the saved session is not at its minimum (the refit gives −0.018 keV, stat 72.8 → 42.4) | P16（luna）；B025；D65e；RT-18P16 (luna); B025; D65e; RT-18 | 待定 PendingPending |
| Chandra 匹配扇区重拟合（P19，运行中；已派 02:21Z，结果待定） | A Chandra matched-sector re-fit (P19, running; dispatched 02:21Z, result pending) | Q-B 的 Chandra 半边目前既无匹配孔径也无功率：2–10′ 的“环”只有 35–62% 的部分环带，共同 kT 检验探不到 ΔkT ≲ 0.27 keV，逐 ObsID 的空白天 α 相差 10% 未传播，拟合能段也与 XMM as-run 不同（R028/D69） | The Chandra half of Q-B currently has neither a matched aperture nor the power: the 2–10′ "rings" are only 35–62 % partial annuli, the common-kT test cannot detect a ΔkT below ≈ 0.27 keV, the two ObsIDs' blank-sky α differ by 10 % unpropagated, and the fit band differs from XMM's as-run band (R028/D69) | 按 XMM 足迹的扇区重拟合 Chandra（α 传播、能段匹配）→ 才能说 Chandra 证实或否证 XMM 的外升。运行中，尚无数字；已收到预先补充（D81）与红队 RT-38 的设计异议（2026-10-17，已分诊 → R043/R044/D83/D84）：(a) “both”（9532 与 9533 足迹的交集）臂在 8–10′ 只占名义环带的 4.1%（4.687 / 113.10 arcmin²，12 个方位 bin 里只有 4 个有事件）、6–8′ 占 23.8% —— 按 brief 自己“< 30% 即判 not matched”的规则，这两环的“both”臂本就不可匹配，而 brief 没写这种情况该怎么办；(b) 执行器重建 QPB 用的 14 个 ff_ccd*.pi 全部计数为零（把 Chandra 探测器坐标的多边形 AND 进了 XMM 的 evselect 表达式）→ 分派方重放确认，但执行者自己已发现并丢弃了它们（原因归属不一致，见 08_RUNNING.md 08:28Z 分诊注）；(c) α 不能被同时设定为“自由参数 + 高斯先验”，因为继承的拟合器把 α 固定并折进 bg.exposure。→ 结果待定，本手册不引它的数字 |
Re-fit Chandra on XMM-footprint sectors (α propagated, band-matched) → only then can Chandra be said to corroborate or refute the XMM rise. Running, no numbers yet; it has the pre-result addendum (D81) and red team RT-38's design objections (2026-10-17, triaged → R043/R044/D83/D84): (a) the "both" (the intersection of the 9532 and 9533 footprints) arm covers only 4.1 % of the nominal 8–10′ annulus (4.687 of 113.10 arcmin², with events in only 4 of 12 position-angle bins) and 23.8 % at 6–8′ — by the brief's own "< 30 % → not matched" rule those rings' "both" arms are not matched to begin with, and the brief never says what to do then; (b) all 14 ff_ccd*.pi spectra the executor rebuilt the QPB from have zero counts (the Chandra detector-frame polygons were ANDed into the XMM evselect expression) → replayed by the dispatcher, but the executor had already found and discarded them (the cause attribution disagrees; see the 08:28Z triage note in 08_RUNNING.md); (c) α cannot be both "a free parameter with a Gaussian prior" and what the inherited fitter does, which fixes α and folds it into bg.exposure. → the result is pending, and this handbook quotes none of its numbers |
P19；D75/D81/D83；D69；RT-23/R028；RT-38/R044P19; D75/D81/D83; D69; RT-23/R028; RT-38/R044 | 待定 PendingPending | ||
| as-run 能段的 mask 阶梯重拟合（P20，已完成 2026-10-17 06:45Z；E048/T173/R039/D79） | An as-run-band refit of the mask ladder (P20, done 2026-10-17 06:45Z; E048/T173/R039/D79) | D64“保留全套 v2 mask”的判定不变，但支撑它的“不用全套点源 mask 会偏 +0.2 keV”是在 0.4–3.2 keV 上量的，而 v18 as-run notice 0.375–9.0 keV；被 mask 挡掉的主要是 M104 自身的光与恒星，机制未被证明（R030/D70） | D64's verdict "keep the full v2 mask" stands, but the "+0.2 keV bias without the full point mask" that supports it was measured on 0.4–3.2 keV while v18 as run notices 0.375–9.0 keV; what the mask removes is mostly M104's own light and stars, so the mechanism is unproven (R030/D70) | 结果（Provisional 暂定，一个孔径）：在真实拟合能段 0.375–9.0 keV 上，只遮延展源+恒星仍把 R2-4_Angle1 的 kT 推高——ΔkT(M3−M0) = +0.287（AGN 注入）/ +0.279（纯热，源幂律按 v18 冻结在 0），而早期阶梯能段（0.4–3.2 keV）上是 +0.225 / +0.172 → D64（保留全套 v2 点源 mask）在 as-run 能段上被确认并加强。机制仍被质疑（Questioned）：自由源幂律那一臂把偏差降到 +0.031 / +0.022，但该臂 65.5% / 24.5% 的自助抽样压在幂律 norm 上限 1e-5（冻结臂则是 82% / 54% 压在 kT 上界 1.0 keV）→ 自由幂律的读数不可解读；R4-6_Angle2 的热臂在所有臂里都失败（−0.06）。尚无正常/专家对照臂（D79：不阻塞）。 — cognition-os/experiments/E048_*.md |
Result (Provisional, one aperture): on the real fitting band 0.375–9.0 keV, masking only extended sources + stars still biases R2-4_Angle1's kT upward — ΔkT(M3−M0) = +0.287 (AGN-injected) / +0.279 (thermal-only, with the source power law frozen at 0 as v18 does), against +0.225 / +0.172 on the earlier ladder band (0.4–3.2 keV) → D64 (keep the full v2 point mask) is CONFIRMED and strengthened on the as-run band. The mechanism stays Questioned: the free-source-power-law arm reduces the bias to +0.031 / +0.022, but in that arm 65.5 % / 24.5 % of the bootstrap draws sit at the power-law norm ceiling 1e-5 (the frozen arm has 82 % / 54 % at the kT upper bound 1.0 keV) → the free-power-law reading is not interpretable; R4-6_Angle2's thermal arm fails in every arm (−0.06). There is still no normal/expert control arm (D79: not blocking). — cognition-os/experiments/E048_*.md |
P20；E048/T173；R039；D79P20; E048/T173; R039; D79 | Provisional 暂定Provisional | ||
| 钉住 v18 世代后重跑 Angle1（P21，运行中；已派 02:21Z，结果待定） | Re-run Angle1 once one v18 generation is pinned (P21, running; dispatched 02:21Z, result pending) | Q-C 的图/v18 比值分支目前不可检验：R7-9 Angle1 没有 .fitting 会话（不可重放）、R9-11 Angle1 有三代且 CSV 比可重放会话高 58%、R11-13/R12-14 不显著；可复现的 Angle2 是平的 1.26 → 1.18（R033/D73） | Q-C's image/v18 ratio branch is currently untestable: R7-9 Angle1 has no .fitting session (unreplayable), R9-11 Angle1 exists in three generations with the CSV 58 % above the replayable session, and R11-13/R12-14 are non-significant; the reproducible Angle2 is flat at 1.26 → 1.18 (R033/D73) | 先在每个区域钉住一个 v18 世代（sha 清单），再在钉住的合同上重跑 Angle1 R7-9…R12-14（这也补上缺失的那个会话），并把 Angle2 与 Angle1 并列报告。运行中，尚无比值；红队 RT-38 的设计异议（2026-10-17，已分诊 → R043/R044/D83/D84）：(a) 所谓“钉住的世代”目前没有钉住——任务树里没有任何 manifest 文件（只有一个生成脚本），且 4 个目标区域全部缺 _params.txt / _model_parameters.txt / _SRCspec_1_SrcApec.txt，因为那次钉住运行用了 FAST_MODE=1，在保存这些文本产品的代码行之前就 sys.exit(0) 了；(b) 它的图像/v18 比值表四个区域的 image_SB 全是负的（−6.6e-16 … −7.3e-16 erg s⁻¹ cm⁻² arcmin⁻²）——天空速率没有除以曝光、分母又多乘了一个 arcmin²，比值不是测量；(c) “复现了存档世代”这句话只对一半：R7-9 Angle1 的存档树里有两个互相矛盾的世代（log 的 kT 0.803 / norm 4.56e-07 与 _params.txt 的 kT 0.844 / norm 2.77e-4，相差 614 倍且 flux 为 0.0），钉住运行复现的是前者。→ 比值待定，本手册不引它的数字 |
First pin one v18 generation per region (a sha manifest), then re-run Angle1 R7-9…R12-14 on the pinned contract (which also supplies the missing session) and report Angle2 next to Angle1. Running, no ratio yet; red team RT-38's design objections (2026-10-17, triaged → R043/R044/D83/D84): (a) the so-called "pinned generation" is not pinned — the job tree contains no manifest file at all (only a script that would write one), and all 4 target regions lack _params.txt / _model_parameters.txt / _SRCspec_1_SrcApec.txt, because the pinned run used FAST_MODE=1, which sys.exit(0)s before the lines that save those text products; (b) its image/v18 ratio table has negative image_SB in all four regions (−6.6e-16 … −7.3e-16 erg s⁻¹ cm⁻² arcmin⁻²) — the sky rate was not divided by the exposure and the denominator carries an extra arcmin², so the ratio is not a measurement; (c) "reproduces the archived generation" is only half true: for R7-9 Angle1 the archived tree holds two mutually inconsistent generations (the log's kT 0.803 / norm 4.56e-07 vs the _params.txt's kT 0.844 / norm 2.77e-4 — 614× apart, with flux 0.0), and the pinned run reproduces the former. → the ratio is pending, and this handbook quotes none of its numbers |
P21；D75/D81/D83；D73；RT-28/R033；RT-38/R043/R044P21; D75/D81/D83; D73; RT-28/R033; RT-38/R043/R044 | 待定 PendingPending | ||
| 给 Q-B 增加检验功率（提案 P23；建议（未经评审），待定 PI） | Add power to the Q-B test (proposed P23; suggestion (not reviewed), pending the PI) | 阶段 5 的判定是 AMBIGUOUS，而且功率不足：按预先声明的非参数定义，两种方法的最小可探测 ΔkT 都 > 0.50 keV，而 0.10 keV 的门低了一个量级；用现有数据无法裁决 0.1 keV 量级的问题（E049/T174/R040/D80，R042/D82） | Stage 5's verdict is AMBIGUOUS and underpowered: under the pre-declared non-parametric definition both methods' minimum detectable ΔkT exceeds 0.50 keV, an order of magnitude above the 0.10 keV gate; the existing data cannot decide a 0.1 keV-scale question (E049/T174/R040/D80, R042/D82) | P23 的形状（D82d，Provisional 暂定，统计投影）：在 8–10′ 上用 MOS2 + pn0（不是 MOS1——它在 8–10′ 的信息量约为 0），天空用偏置指向 0501/0601 固定（顺便消掉天空 B 的循环性），并在该天空下做注入 → 预期最小可探测 ≈ 0.3 keV。其他选项：8–12′ 更大孔径给 ≈ 0.26 keV（高斯近似；但估计量变了，需要新的预注册）；MOS2+pn0 8–12′ 给 ≈ 0.26 keV。要把最小可探测压到 0.10 keV，需要 ×11–25 的曝光（+pn0 则 ×11–15），而系统误差本来就有 ~0.1 keV → 单靠加曝光没用。0.1 keV 的决定用现有数据做不到；最好的一步就是 MOS2+pn0 在 8–10′、天空由偏置指向固定。等 RT-39 与 P22 之后再向 PI 提出。 — .agent/jobs/2026-10-17-stage5-expert-rederivation/REPORT.opus.md（功率表）；04_DECISION_LOG.md D82 |
P23's shape (D82d, Provisional, a statistical projection): MOS2 + pn0 on 8–10′ (not MOS1 — its information at 8–10′ is ≈ 0), with the sky fixed from the offset pointings 0501/0601 (which also removes sky B's circularity), and injections under that sky → projected minimum detectable ≈ 0.3 keV. Other options: a larger 8–12′ aperture gives ≈ 0.26 keV (Gaussian approximation; but the estimand changes, so it needs a new pre-registration); MOS2+pn0 on 8–12′ gives ≈ 0.26 keV. Pushing the minimum detectable down to 0.10 keV would need ×11–25 the exposure (×11–15 with pn0 added), while the systematics are already ~0.1 keV → more exposure alone does not help. A 0.1 keV decision is out of reach with the existing data; the best next step is MOS2+pn0 on 8–10′ with the sky fixed from the offsets. To be put to the PI after RT-39 and P22. — .agent/jobs/2026-10-17-stage5-expert-rederivation/REPORT.opus.md (the power table); 04_DECISION_LOG.md D82 |
P23（建议，未经评审）；D82d；E049/T174P23 (suggestion, not reviewed); D82d; E049/T174 | 待定 PendingPending | ||
| Q-C：外环谱的拟合方法；15–30′ 对比（R′）不可测 | Q-C: the outer-ring spectral fit method; the 15–30′ comparison (R′) not testable | 13′ 假象已定性（I065），但外环（10–14′，FoV 边缘 ~50% 被裁）的谱点仍不可用：kT 上限撞 1 keV 参数顶、源/背景简并 | The 13′ artefact is characterised (I065), but the outer-ring (10–14′, ~50% clipped at the FoV edge) spectral points remain unusable: kT upper limits hit the 1 keV ceiling, source/background degenerate | 归一错误 + 弱信号简并（I065，Provisional）。图内检验第三次确认无 13′ 超出（E041：R11–13/R9–11 = 0.949 ± 0.029 / 1.029 ± 0.037）；图/v18 比值分支不可检验（RT-28/R033/D73，见本表 P21 行） | Normalisation error + weak-signal degeneracy (I065, Provisional). The image-internal test confirms no 13′ excess for the third time (E041: R11–13/R9–11 = 0.949 ± 0.029 / 1.029 ± 0.037); the image/v18 ratio branch is untestable (RT-28/R033/D73, see the P21 row in this table) | 更宽 kT 范围 + profile-likelihood 误差，或绑定/正则化径向模型，或用偏置指向（0900170501/0601） | Wider kT range + profile-likelihood errors, or a tied/regularised radial model, or the offset pointings (0900170501/0601) | Q-C 后续（并入 Virgo 再抽谱 D47）Q-C follow-up (folded into the Virgo re-reduction D47) | OpenOpen |
| Q-D：2D 温度图（等 Q-A） | Q-D: the 2D temperature map (waits for Q-A) | feedback 与引力束缚气体的区分需要 2D 温度 | Separating feedback from bound gas needs a 2D temperature field | 按 D49 探索：窄带比值代理（Fe-L 硬度等）+ 自适应网格（WVT/共享核）+ 象限锚定；验收 = 形态保真度（均匀真值不出假结构、注入结构原位恢复、≥2 相机/方案一致），整体可控偏差可接受；谱拟合 3–4 个关键 bin 作校验 | Explore per D49: narrow-band ratio proxies (e.g. Fe-L hardness) + adaptive grids (WVT/shared kernel) + quadrant anchors; acceptance = morphology fidelity (uniform truth → no spurious structure, injected structure recovered in place, consistent across ≥2 cameras/schemes), an overall controlled bias acceptable; spectral fits of 3–4 key bins as checks | 亮度图已完成（阶段 2：v2-mask MOS2、QPB+天空扣除、β 残差与扇区对比，E042）；2D kT 阶段 3 已完成（E043：估计器 E3 + cone45，双臂一致，共同足迹 56%）；生产图（P12/E045）首批已出（读数：2–5′ 无小轴 vs 盘对比、内区 N−S +0.10 keV 提示，仅一种方法；东箭头方向缺陷修正中，修好前不展示该图）→ 待定；区域设计建议 cone45 bin；全套 v2 mask 保留（R020/D64）。当前最佳数字（折叠图，E046/T171，Provisional 暂定）：四象限折叠的 2D kT 图 v2 给出 2–12′ 的逐箱 kT 中位带 0.70–0.80 keV（逐箱范围 0.53–0.89 keV，全局 0.736 keV，8/21 箱在带外——措辞按 RT-20/D68/R025 收窄）、全角度斜率 +0.009 keV/角分（95 % [−0.003, +0.020]，+1.5σ）→ 对这种单温代理而言无 ≥ 2σ 的内冷外热；每 5′ 升 0.1 keV 的梯度在 E046 的单温代理注入里 91% 的次数能被找回（仅这一个温代理的自检；与真实逐楔 2–8′ 检验对应的统计量在 E047 端到端模拟里功率只有 27–36%，所以这 91% 不是探测功率）；盘楔外箱 0.85–0.88 vs 小轴楔 0.61–0.77 keV 只是提示（≈ 1.4σ）；MOS2 与 pn0 逐箱一致（p = 0.60）；pn0 QPB 缩放（测试用）会把斜率推到 ≈ 2σ → 趋势对背景敏感；< 2′ 核被 mask 遮住，冷却流不可检验（D66/P18 待定）；E045 的内区 N−S 提示降为 Questioned（R022） | The intensity map is done (stage 2: v2-masked MOS2, QPB + sky subtracted, β residuals and sector contrasts, E042); 2D kT stage 3 is done (E043: estimator E3 + cone45, both arms agree, common footprint 56 %); the first production maps (P12/E045) are out (readings: no minor-axis vs disk contrast at 2–5′, an inner N−S +0.10 keV hint, one method only; the East-arrow direction defect is being fixed and the map is not shown until it is) → pending; the region design recommends cone45 bins; the full v2 mask stays (R020/D64). Current best number (the folded map, E046/T171, Provisional): the four-quadrant-folded 2D kT map v2 gives a median per-bin kT band of 0.70–0.80 keV over 2–12′ (per-bin range 0.53–0.89 keV; global 0.736 keV; 8/21 bins outside the band — wording narrowed per RT-20/D68/R025) and an all-angle slope of +0.009 keV/arcmin (95 % [−0.003, +0.020], +1.5σ) → no inner-cool/outer-hot trend at ≥ 2σ for this one-temperature proxy; a gradient of +0.1 keV per 5′ is recovered 91 % of the time in E046's own one-temperature-proxy injection (that proxy's self-test only; the statistic matching the real per-wedge 2–8′ test has a power of only 27–36 % in the E047 end-to-end mock, so this 91 % is not a detection power); the disk wedge's outer cells 0.85–0.88 vs the minor wedge 0.61–0.77 keV are suggestive only (≈ 1.4σ); MOS2 and pn0 agree bin by bin (p = 0.60); the pn0 QPB scaling (test-only) pushes the slope to ≈ 2σ → the trend is background-sensitive; the core inside 2′ is masked, so a cooling flow is untestable here (D66/P18 pending); E045's inner N−S hint is downgraded to Questioned (R022) | E038/E042/E043/E046；P12 生产图；P15 折叠图 v2E038/E042/E043/E046; P12 production maps; P15 folded map v2 | 待定 PendingPending |
| MOS1 静态（非耀发）硬过剩：每个指向都偏高 | MOS1 quiescent (non-flare) hard excess: high in every pointing | MOS1 参与所有 v18 拟合；若其背景模型欠 5–20%，会偏置 kT | MOS1 enters every v18 fit; a 5–20% background underestimate would bias kT | 静态 SP 成分或 MOS1 参考系统误差（成因 Questioned） | A quiescent SP component or MOS1 reference systematics (cause Questioned) | Q-A 阶段 2：MOS1-free vs MOS1-with-extra-SP 拟合对比（I066） | Q-A stage 2: MOS1-free vs MOS1-with-extra-SP fit tests (I066) | I066/T151；Q-A 后续I066/T151; Q-A follow-up | ProvisionalProvisional |
| 点源/星系团遮蔽无法把残余压到 <5% | Point-source/cluster masking cannot push residuals below 5% | 弱晕区（R11-13 Angle2 残余/晕比当前 3.6）做任何温度测量前必须先处理残余 | Before any temperature measurement in the faint-halo region (residual/halo currently 3.6 in R11-13 Angle2), the residual must be handled | PSF 翼与星系团发射遮不掉（E035；mask 规则 v2 后残余/晕比仍 ≈0.37，相对 v18 局部晕面亮度——0.95 只是相对 v2 晕律，该晕律比 v18 暗 2.59×，RT-05 修订 R008/RT-32 的 OBJ-7） | PSF wings and cluster emission are not maskable (E035; after mask rule v2 the residual/halo ratio is still ≈0.37 relative to the v18 local halo surface brightness — 0.95 holds only relative to the v2 halo law, which is 2.59× fainter than v18; RT-05 amendment R008 / RT-32's OBJ-7) | 建模残余：星系团作为 APEC 成分 + 空间加权残余模型；固定 CXB 归一须与 mask 流量阈值匹配（E035） | Model the residual: the cluster as an APEC component + a spatially weighted residual model; the fixed CXB normalisation must match the mask flux cut (E035) | E035；Virgo 再抽谱 D47E035; the Virgo re-reduction D47 | ProvisionalProvisional |
| Virgo 再抽谱计划（D47） | The Virgo re-reduction plan (D47) | B020/I065/E035 的修正（正确 SB、mask v2、建模残余）都要落到新的提取产品上 | The corrections from B020/I065/E035 (correct SB, mask v2, modelled residual) must land in new extraction products | 以 v1.7.8 基线复现为对照，每阶段只改一个设计元素 | Reproduce the v1.7.8 baseline as the control, then change one design element per stage | S0 基线复现已 PASS（事件级复现，E040）；阶段 1 完成但口径谱只有自动 mask（B023）→ 阶段 1b 重抽 v2-mask 口径谱：已于 2026-10-17 02:45Z 交付、门 2 通过（D76c：9/9 口径、MANIFEST 506/506 OK、BACKSCAL 真实、REG 身份 PASS），但交付的 QPB 大 1e6–1e7 倍（B026/R037/D77）→ mask/口径/响应被接受、QPB 不被接受。P22 的 QPB 重生成（2026-10-17，运行中）：9 个口径里 3 个已重新生成并通过（量级门 R = 0.88–0.95，落在 0.8–1.3 内；第一个口径的重生成 back.pi 与 Sonnet 的 back_fixed 之比在全部 12 个能带里都是 0.9898，即恒定 1.02%），其余约 10:05Z 完成 → 待定，阶段 5 的数字在重生成 QPB 上重查之前仍标注 derived-QPB。Bundle 完整性教训（B027）：交付 bundle 里的一个 events 文件曾被发现被清空并已恢复（04:42:38Z）；阶段 5 不受影响（它用到的事件派生项在 03:59–04:01Z 就已完成）。按 D81，P22 重新交付后该 bundle 会被 chmod -R a-w |
The s0 baseline reproduction PASSed (event-level reproduction, E040); stage 1 finished but its aperture spectra carry only the automatic mask (B023) → stage 1b re-extracts the v2-masked aperture spectra: delivered on 2026-10-17 02:45Z with gate 2 PASSED (D76c: 9/9 apertures, MANIFEST 506/506 OK, real BACKSCAL, REG identity PASS), but the delivered QPB is 1e6–1e7× too large (B026/R037/D77) → the masks/apertures/responses are accepted, the QPB is not. P22's QPB regeneration (2026-10-17, running): 3 of the 9 apertures have been regenerated and accepted (the magnitude gate R = 0.88–0.95, inside 0.8–1.3; for the first aperture the regenerated back.pi / Sonnet's back_fixed is 0.9898 in all 12 bands, i.e. a constant 1.02 %), the rest due about 10:05Z → pending, and stage 5's numbers stay labelled derived-QPB until the analysis is re-checked on the regenerated QPB. Bundle-integrity lesson (B027): one events file in the delivered bundle was found emptied and restored (04:42:38Z); stage 5 is unaffected (its events-derived items were done at 03:59–04:01Z). Per D81 the bundle gets chmod -R a-w once P22 re-delivers it |
job virgo-rereduction-s0；D47/D57/D77/D81；B023/B026/B027job virgo-rereduction-s0; D47/D57/D77/D81; B023/B026/B027 |
待定 PendingPending |
未来 1–4 周计划
Plan for the next 1–4 weeks
计划完全来自 cognition-os/02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md 与各 job 的 BRIEF/REPORT，不是本手册的发明。2026-10-17 15:2xZ 更新：Q-B 的决定性检验（D55 预注册的匹配合同测试）已完成，判定 = AMBIGUOUS（含糊）——功率不足，不是"没有上升"（2026-10-17 07:15Z，E049/T174/R040/D80；Provisional 暂定）。谱拟合 S4 的 ΔkT(8–10′−2–4′) = +0.13（天空 A，95% −0.21…+0.42）/ +0.19（天空 B，−0.004…+0.42），Fe-L 硬度 +0.01（−0.32…+0.46）/ +0.07（−0.13…+0.33）；最小可探测 ΔkT 的 0.43 keV 只是高斯近似，按预先声明的非参数定义（50% 功率、95% 区间）两种方法都 > 0.50 keV（R042/D82）。独立专家复核（Opus，D59a）确认 AMBIGUOUS。阶段 5b（在重新生成的 QPB 上重跑）已于 12:48Z 分诊：判定不变（R046/D86）——天空 B 的 ΔkT +0.1886 → +0.1982（−0.034…+0.478），QPB 构造系统误差 0.010 keV；P22 重新生成的 QPB 已于 11:04Z 被接受（9/9 口径过量级门，R 0.884–1.005，R045/D85）。下一步 = 提案 P23（尚未经 PI 批准，未启动）：形状已按 R048/D88 重排——先用偏置指向 0501/0601 测天空（零新增曝光，但这些产品是旧 mask 合同，必须先按 v2 重新归约 = P5），MOS1/pn 口径没有申请；Opus 的 MOS2+pn0 8–12′ 信息增益 2.66 是错的，RT-42 重放给出 1.44（总计数）/ 1.91（净计数），对应最小可探测 0.36 / 0.31 keV（不是 0.26）→ 引用 0.31–0.36 keV（D88c）；加功率只把区间变窄，本身不把 AMBIGUOUS 变成 RISE——14 个门对照自己就把 ΔkT 移动 0.11–0.20 keV（RT-42 OBJ-4）。P20 已完成（E048/T173/R039/D79）：在真实能段 0.375–9.0 keV 上，只遮延展源+恒星仍把 R2-4_Angle1 的 kT 推高 +0.287（AGN 注入）/ +0.279（纯热）→ 全套 v2 点源 mask 保留（机制仍被质疑）。P21 已完成（E050/T175/R049/D89）：钉住一个 v18 世代后，image/v18 比值 没有任何 ≥2σ 的径向上升（0.929 / 1.477 / 1.369，每步 <0.5σ，R12-14 未定义），归档的 3.32 来自不可重放的世代；绝对量与阶段 2 差 ≈2.25× 未调和。P19 运行中（预先补充 D81，结果待定）。Chandra-only 与单一温度 0.725 keV 一致（D56/D61），"合同不匹配"表述已撤回（R009）；Q-D：2D 强度阶段 2 完成（E042/R016：2–5′ 不对称与 β 椭圆率一致，≥+30% 双锥被排除），2D kT 阶段 3 完成（E043/R018：估计器 E3 + cone45，双臂一致，共同足迹 56%），折叠图 v2 已出（E046/T171），生产图的东箭头缺陷未修好、总览图不展示；红队 RT-01…RT-44 已分诊（42 支），RT-36 无报告死亡、RT-44 启动即死，RT-37（Li+2007 读作 "varying little"，项目的台阶只 ≈0.8–1.0σ）、RT-38、RT-39、RT-40、RT-41（+2.19σ 是 13 个事后半径里的最大值，不显著）、RT-42 均已分诊，RT-43（P19 结果）与 RT-44（P21 结果）运行中 → 待定。
The plan comes entirely from cognition-os/02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md and the job briefs/reports; it is not invented by this handbook. Update 2026-10-17 15:2xZ: Q-B's decisive test (the D55 pre-registered matched-contract test) is done and its verdict is AMBIGUOUS — underpowered, not a "no rise" (2026-10-17 07:15Z, E049/T174/R040/D80; Provisional). The spectral fit S4's ΔkT(8–10′−2–4′) = +0.13 (sky A, 95 % −0.21…+0.42) / +0.19 (sky B, −0.004…+0.42) and the Fe-L hardness +0.01 (−0.32…+0.46) / +0.07 (−0.13…+0.33); the minimum detectable ΔkT's 0.43 keV is only the Gaussian approximation, and under the pre-declared non-parametric definition (50 % power, 95 % interval) both methods exceed 0.50 keV (R042/D82). An independent expert re-derivation (Opus, D59a) confirms AMBIGUOUS. Stage 5b (the re-run on the regenerated QPB) was triaged at 12:48Z: the verdict is unchanged (R046/D86) — sky B's ΔkT +0.1886 → +0.1982 (−0.034…+0.478) and the QPB-construction systematic is 0.010 keV; P22's regenerated QPB was accepted at 11:04Z (9/9 apertures pass the magnitude gate, R 0.884–1.005, R045/D85). The next step is proposal P23 (not yet approved by the PI, not started): its shape was re-ordered per R048/D88 — measure the sky from the offset pointings 0501/0601 first (zero new exposure, but those products are on the old-mask contract and must be re-reduced on v2 first = P5), and MOS1/pn apertures are not requested; Opus's MOS2+pn0 8–12′ information gain of 2.66 is wrong — RT-42's replay gives 1.44 (gross-count) / 1.91 (net-count), corresponding to a minimum detectable of 0.36 / 0.31 keV (not 0.26) → quote 0.31–0.36 keV (D88c); more power only narrows the interval — it does not by itself turn AMBIGUOUS into RISE, because the 14 gate controls themselves move ΔkT by 0.11–0.20 keV (RT-42 OBJ-4). P20 is done (E048/T173/R039/D79): on the real band 0.375–9.0 keV, masking only extended sources + stars still pushes R2-4_Angle1's kT up by +0.287 (AGN-injected) / +0.279 (thermal-only) → the full v2 point mask stays (the mechanism stays Questioned). P21 is done (E050/T175/R049/D89): with one v18 generation pinned, the image/v18 ratio shows no ≥2σ rise with radius (0.929 / 1.477 / 1.369, every step <0.5σ, R12-14 undefined), and the archived 3.32 came from an unreplayable generation; the absolute level differs from stage 2 by ≈2.25× and is unreconciled. P19 is running (pre-result addendum D81, results pending). Chandra-only is consistent with one temperature 0.725 keV (D56/D61) and the "contract mismatch" headline is withdrawn (R009); Q-D: 2D intensity stage 2 done (E042/R016: the 2–5′ asymmetry is consistent with β ellipticity, a ≥ +30 % bicone is excluded), 2D kT stage 3 done (E043/R018: estimator E3 + cone45, both arms agree, common footprint 56 %), the folded v2 map is out (E046/T171), the production map's east-arrow defect is not yet fixed so the overview figure is not shown; red teams RT-01…RT-44 are triaged (42), RT-36 died without a report and RT-44 died at startup; RT-37 (the Li+2007 reference reads "varying little" and this project's step is only ≈0.8–1.0σ), RT-38, RT-39, RT-40, RT-41 (the +2.19σ is the maximum over 13 post-hoc split radii and is not significant) and RT-42 are all triaged, and RT-43 (the P19 results) and RT-44 (the P21 results) are running → pending.
| 周Week | 内容Content | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | 已完成：Q-A 清单、试点、阶段 2 全网格（4,800 拟合）→ MOS2 内区参考（D48/I067） | Done: Q-A inventory, pilot, stage-2 full grid (4,800 fits) → MOS2 inner reference (D48/I067) |
| 11 | 已完成：Q-C 判为假象（I065）；红队 RT-01 攻击中；15–45′ 轮廓 job 运行中 | Done: Q-C judged an artefact (I065); red team RT-01 attacking; the 15–45′ profile job running |
| 1–21–2 | 已完成：Q-D 亮度图；2D 代理阶段 2（E038：联合 MOS2+pn0、校准对比区间、N>S 提示）；下一步 = Virgo 阶段 1 谱检验（P3 check_N/S_R2-4.9） | Done: the Q-D intensity map; 2D proxy stage 2 (E038: joint MOS2+pn0, calibrated contrast bounds, N>S a hint); next = the Virgo stage 1 spectral check (P3 check_N/S_R2-4.9) |
| 1–21–2 | 待匹配合同：谱 vs Fe-L 硬度分歧（I068/I070）不能在旧产品上裁决；只由 D55 预注册的匹配合同测试判定（阶段 1b 的 v2-mask 产品就绪后）；0900170501/0601 ODF 已下载校验（22:50Z）→ 阶段 1b 通过后 Virgo 重处理（外区 profile） | Awaiting the matched contract: the spectral vs Fe-L-hardness disagreement (I068/I070) cannot be settled on the old products; it is decided only by the D55 pre-registered matched-contract test (once the stage-1b v2-masked products exist); the 0900170501/0601 ODFs are downloaded and verified (22:50Z) → Virgo re-reduction for the outer profile after stage 1b passes |
| 2–42–4 | Q-A 阶段 3/4 完成（S4 外区/边缘未合格 → 探索性，D51/D54）；Virgo 阶段 1 完成但口径谱只有自动 mask（B023）→ 阶段 1b 重抽 v2-mask 口径谱：2026-10-17 02:45Z 已交付、门 2 通过（D76c：9/9 口径、MANIFEST 506/506 OK、BACKSCAL 真实、REG 身份 PASS），但交付的 QPB 大 1e6–1e7 倍（B026/R037/D77）→ mask/口径/响应被接受、QPB 不被接受；阶段 5 = 匹配合同测试（D55 预注册规则，已冻结）等阶段 1b；mask 阶梯"轻 mask"结论被 RT-17 推翻（R020/D64：全套 v2 mask 保留、阶段 B 取消）；红队 RT-15/RT-16/RT-17 已分诊（D62/D63/R020），RT-18/RT-19 已分诊（B025/R023、R022/D65），RT-20/RT-21 运行中；P16 测量 as-run 能段与 RASS 过滤器对已存 kT 的影响（待定）；P18 端到端模拟（含 S7 = PI 的冷却流情景）说明数据排除哪些冷却流版本（待定） | Q-A stages 3–4 done (S4 outer/edge not qualified → exploratory, D51/D54); Virgo stage 1 finished but its aperture spectra carry only the automatic mask (B023) → stage 1b re-extracts the v2-masked aperture spectra: delivered 2026-10-17 02:45Z with gate 2 PASSED (D76c: 9/9 apertures, MANIFEST 506/506 OK, real BACKSCAL, REG identity PASS), but the delivered QPB is 1e6–1e7× too large (B026/R037/D77) → the masks/apertures/responses are accepted, the QPB is not; stage 5 = the matched-contract test (D55 pre-registered rule, frozen) waiting for stage 1b; the mask ladder's "lighter mask" conclusion was overturned by RT-17 (R020/D64: the full v2 mask stays, stage B cancelled); red teams RT-15/RT-16/RT-17 triaged (D62/D63/R020), RT-18/RT-19 triaged (B025/R023, R022/D65), RT-20/RT-21 running; P16 measures the effect of the as-run band and the RASS filter on the saved kT (pending); P18, the end-to-end mock (including S7, the PI's cooling-flow scenario), will say which cooling-flow versions the data exclude (pending) |
本次更新
What's new
- 2026-10-17 15:23Z（阶段 15/15e：阶段 5 判定 AMBIGUOUS、P20/P21/P22 与阶段 5b、红队 RT-37…RT-42 全线分诊）：Q-B 的预注册判定出来了：AMBIGUOUS（功率不足），不是“没有上升”——ΔkT = kT(R8-10) − kT(R2-4)（目标 0）：谱拟合 S4 天空 A +0.13（−0.21…+0.42）、天空 B +0.19（−0.004…+0.42），Fe-L 硬度 H +0.01（−0.32…+0.46） / +0.07（−0.13…+0.33）；最小可探测 ΔkT 的 0.43 keV 只是高斯近似，按预先声明的非参数定义（50% 功率）两方法都 > 0.50 keV（R042/D82）。QPB 换血：交付的 back.pi 大 1e6–1e7 倍（B026）→ P22 重新生成 11:04Z 被接受（9/9 口径过量级门，R 0.884–1.005）→ 阶段 5b 在其上重跑 12:48Z 分诊：判定不变，天空 B 的 ΔkT +0.1886 → +0.1982（−0.034…+0.478），QPB 构造系统误差 0.010 keV（R046/D86）。P20（as-run 能段 mask 阶梯）：只遮延展源+恒星仍把 R2-4_Angle1 的 kT 推高 +0.287 / +0.279 keV → D64 被确认并加强，机制仍被质疑。P21（钉住 v18 世代）：image/v18 比值 没有任何 ≥2σ 的径向上升（0.929 / 1.477 / 1.369），归档的 3.32 来自不可重放的世代；绝对量与阶段 2 差 ≈2.25× 未调和。RT-41：折叠图的 +2.19σ 是 13 个事后半径里的最大值，不显著；预先声明的统计量最高只 +1.78σ。RT-42：P23 的信息增益是 1.44/1.91 而非 2.66，且门对照自己就移动 0.11–0.20 keV → 加功率本身不给 RISE；P23 尚未经 PI 批准，形状重排为先用偏置指向 0501/0601 测天空。
- 2026-10-17 05:08Z（阶段 14：按读者级红队 RT-32 的 9 条缺陷修订本手册，R037/D77）：手册自身被当作读者用一遍，9 条缺陷全部修订——(1) §3.1 环境块改为实际运行的那一套（CIAO 4.18：
source /home/huangrui/software/ciao-4.18/bin/ciao.sh、HEADAS=/home/huangrui/software/ciao-4.18/spectral、XSPEC_MDATA_DIR=.../modelData/，Python 3.12.12 + sherpa 4.18.0），原写法（heasoft + conda 环境的零字节 ciao.sh）读者照抄会失败；(2) 删掉run_v18_fit.sh与本手册“内容一致”的说法，改为注明它的第 7 行 source 的是另一套 ciao.sh、并非同一套环境；(3) 状态页 R4–6 的误差 0.041 → 保守的 0.104 keV（0.730 ± 0.104，与 CSV 和本页正文一致，来源figure/radial_thermo_profiles_v18/radial_kT_profile_v18_sector_mean.csv）；(4) 说明 R8–10 Angle1 的已存拟合退化，且 R8–10/R10–12/R12–14 是单扇区（provisional_single_sector），外侧轮廓只靠一个扇区支撑；(5) 红队台账与阶段 1b 状态更新：RT-29 → R034、RT-30 → R035、RT-31 → R036、RT-32 → R037，RT-33 运行中；阶段 1b 已交付（9/9 口径、MANIFEST 506/506 OK、BACKSCAL 真实、REG 身份 PASS），但交付的mos2U005-back.pi（QPB）在全部 9 个口径里大了 1e6–1e7 倍（阶段 5 执行器发现；门 2 从未检查量级）→ 阶段 5 改用经验证的修复 back.pi（derived-QPB），重生成 P22 运行中 → 待定，本手册不引它的数字；(6) Q-A 的“MOS2-only 是内区参考”只在 kT ∈ [0.45, 1.0] keV 成立（R036/D76）；(7) design.html 的“v2 mask 后仍 0.95”改为 ≈0.37（相对 v18 局部晕面亮度；0.95 只相对 v2 晕律，后者比 v18 暗 2.59×，引 E035 的 RT-05 修订）；(8) 新增“本页各图用哪个 M104 距离”一节：逐图列出 11.3 / 8.9 / 9.55 Mpc 及其来源，并警告在距离钉死之前跨图数字不可比；(9) 撤下ktmap_v2_pi_summary.png（东箭头画成朝西的显示缺陷，且 sha256 证实本手册嵌的是修复前副本）——不造假文件。检查：check_bilingual.py与check_console.sh全部 PASS。 - 2026-10-16 23:4xZ（阶段 13：R028–R033 / D69–D73 收尾）：Q-C 的“图/v18 比值 1.00 → 3.32 径向上升”被撤回（RT-28 → R033/D73）——它不是物理上升：Angle1 行不可重放（R7-9 没有 .fitting 会话）、不可复现（R9-11 有三代，CSV 比可重放会话高 58%）或不显著（R11-13 Δstat 1.36；R12-14 Δstat 0.0），而可复现的 Angle2 是平的 1.26 → 1.18；图内检验（E041：R11–13/R9–11 = 0.949 ± 0.029 / 1.029 ± 0.037）仍显示无 13′ 超出 → R030 的“无像过剩不成立”本身被撤回，图/v18 分支不可检验，直到每个区域钉住一个 v18 世代（提案 P21：CoPI，需 PI）。v18 合同再收窄（RT-27 → R032/D72）：v18 加载了 RASS 但从未给它模型 → RASS 不约束任何东西，“RASS 过滤器损坏”只是更小的症状；P16 的“kT 能段效应 < 1σ”保持 Provisional 并附限制（事后误差侧 0.18–0.68σ → 最高 0.83σ；天空整族穿过 LocalBubble.kT = 0.08 下界钉住的背景拟合；22 自由参数 vs 17–43 dof；保存拟合远离极小值 Δstat ≤ 39），天空归一未被证明能段稳健。D55 的组合压力对照判据（RT-26 → R031/D71）：SP+CXB+QPB 的同号线性相加 +0.142 keV 比 0.10 keV 的门还大，所以该对照按阶段 5 在阶段 1b 产品上实测的那一条组合臂来判；如果它把 ΔkT 移动 ≥ 0.10 keV，判定一律封顶为 AMBIGUOUS。红队：RT-23/RT-24/RT-25/RT-26/RT-27/RT-28 已分诊（R028–R033，D69–D73），共 28 支已分诊；RT-29（阶段 1b 门）与 RT-30（Q-A 策略）运行中（待定）。开问题表新增三条建议（未经评审）：P19 Chandra 匹配扇区重拟合、P20 as-run 能段 mask 阶梯重拟合、P21 钉住 v18 世代后重跑 Angle1。过程：冷启动演练 4 运行中；阶段 1b 仍在出口径（8 条并行通道）。
- 2026-10-17 15:23Z (stage 15/15e: stage 5's verdict AMBIGUOUS, P20/P21/P22 and stage 5b, red teams RT-37…RT-42 all triaged): Q-B's pre-registered verdict is in: AMBIGUOUS (underpowered), not "no rise" — ΔkT = kT(R8-10) − kT(R2-4) (target 0): the spectral fit S4 sky A +0.13 (−0.21…+0.42), sky B +0.19 (−0.004…+0.42), the Fe-L hardness H +0.01 (−0.32…+0.46) / +0.07 (−0.13…+0.33); the minimum detectable ΔkT's 0.43 keV is only the Gaussian approximation, and under the pre-declared non-parametric definition (50 % power) both methods exceed 0.50 keV (R042/D82). The QPB is rebuilt: the delivered back.pi was 1e6–1e7× too large (B026) → P22's regeneration was accepted at 11:04Z (9/9 apertures pass the magnitude gate, R 0.884–1.005) → stage 5b's re-run on it was triaged at 12:48Z: the verdict is unchanged, sky B's ΔkT +0.1886 → +0.1982 (−0.034…+0.478), and the QPB-construction systematic is 0.010 keV (R046/D86). P20 (the as-run-band mask ladder): masking only extended sources + stars still biases R2-4_Angle1's kT up by +0.287 / +0.279 keV → D64 confirmed and strengthened, mechanism still Questioned. P21 (one pinned v18 generation): the image/v18 ratio shows no ≥2σ rise with radius (0.929 / 1.477 / 1.369), and the archived 3.32 came from an unreplayable generation; the absolute level differs from stage 2 by ≈2.25× and is unreconciled. RT-41: the folded map's +2.19σ is the maximum over 13 post-hoc split radii and is not significant; the pre-declared statistics peak at +1.78σ. RT-42: P23's information gain is 1.44/1.91, not 2.66, and the gate controls themselves move ΔkT by 0.11–0.20 keV → more power alone does not give RISE; P23 is not yet approved by the PI and its shape was re-ordered to measure the sky from the offset pointings 0501/0601 first.
- 2026-10-17 05:08Z (stage 14: this handbook revised against the 9 defects found by reader-level red team RT-32, R037/D77): the handbook was used as a reader would use it, and all 9 defects are fixed — (1) the §3.1 environment block is replaced by the invocation that actually runs (CIAO 4.18:
source /home/huangrui/software/ciao-4.18/bin/ciao.sh,HEADAS=/home/huangrui/software/ciao-4.18/spectral,XSPEC_MDATA_DIR=.../modelData/, Python 3.12.12 + sherpa 4.18.0); the old block (heasoft + the conda env's zero-byte ciao.sh) would have failed for a reader who copied it; (2) the claim thatrun_v18_fit.shis "identical in content" is dropped, and the script is now described with the fact that its line 7 sources a different ciao.sh, i.e. not the same environment; (3) the state page's R4–6 error 0.041 → the conservative 0.104 keV (0.730 ± 0.104, matching the CSV and the page's own prose, sourcefigure/radial_thermo_profiles_v18/radial_kT_profile_v18_sector_mean.csv); (4) the page now says R8–10 Angle1's saved fit is degenerate and that R8–10/R10–12/R12–14 are single-sector (provisional_single_sector), so the outer profile rests on one sector; (5) the red-team ledger and stage-1b status are updated: RT-29 → R034, RT-30 → R035, RT-31 → R036, RT-32 → R037, RT-33 running; stage 1b is delivered (9/9 apertures, MANIFEST 506/506 OK, real BACKSCAL, REG identity PASS), but the deliveredmos2U005-back.pi(QPB) is 1e6–1e7× too large in all 9 apertures (found by the stage-5 executor; gate 2 never checked magnitudes) → stage 5 runs on the validated repair back.pi (derived-QPB) while regeneration P22 runs → pending, and this handbook quotes none of its numbers; (6) Q-A's "MOS2-only is the inner reference" holds only for kT in [0.45, 1.0] keV (R036/D76); (7) design.html's "still 0.95 after mask v2" becomes ≈0.37 (relative to the v18 local halo surface brightness; 0.95 holds only relative to the v2 halo law, which is 2.59× fainter than v18, citing E035's RT-05 amendment); (8) a new section "which M104 distance each figure on this page uses" lists 11.3 / 8.9 / 9.55 Mpc per figure with its source and warns that the numbers are not comparable across figures until the distance is pinned; (9)ktmap_v2_pi_summary.pngis taken down (a display defect drawing the East arrow toward West, with sha256 proving the embedded copy was the pre-fix one) — no fake files are created. Checks:check_bilingual.pyandcheck_console.shall PASS. - 2026-10-16 23:4xZ (stage 13, the R028–R033 / D69–D73 close-out): Q-C's "image/v18 ratio 1.00 → 3.32 rising radially" is withdrawn (RT-28 → R033/D73) — it is not a physical rise: its Angle1 rows are unreplayable (R7-9 has no .fitting session), unreproducible (R9-11 exists in three generations, the CSV 58 % above the replayable session) or non-significant (R11-13 Δstat 1.36; R12-14 Δstat 0.0), while the reproducible Angle2 is flat at 1.26 → 1.18; the image-internal test (E041: R11–13/R9–11 = 0.949 ± 0.029 / 1.029 ± 0.037) still shows no 13′ excess → R030's "no image excess is false" is itself withdrawn, and the image/v18 branch is not testable until one v18 generation per region is pinned (proposed P21: CoPI, needs the PI). The v18 contract narrowed again (RT-27 → R032/D72): v18 loads RASS but never gives it a model → RASS constrains nothing, so "the RASS filter is corrupt" is a smaller symptom; P16's "the band effect on kT is < 1σ" stays Provisional with limits (a post-hoc error side 0.18–0.68σ → up to 0.83σ; the whole frozen sky family moves through a bound-pinned background fit with LocalBubble.kT at its 0.08 floor; 22 free parameters vs 17–43 dof; the saved fits sit far from their minima, Δstat ≤ 39), and the sky norms are not shown band-robust. D55's combined-stress criterion (RT-26 → R031/D71): the SP+CXB+QPB same-sign linear sum +0.142 keV is larger than the 0.10 keV gate, so that control is judged on the measured stage-5 combined arm on the stage-1b products; if it shifts ΔkT by ≥ 0.10 keV, the verdict is capped at AMBIGUOUS. Red teams: RT-23/RT-24/RT-25/RT-26/RT-27/RT-28 are triaged (R028–R033, D69–D73) — 28 triaged in total; RT-29 (the stage-1b gate) and RT-30 (the Q-A strategy) are running (Pending). The open-problems table gains three suggestions (not reviewed): P19 a Chandra matched-sector re-fit, P20 an as-run-band refit of the mask ladder, and P21 an Angle1 re-run once one v18 generation is pinned. Process: cold-start drill 4 is running; stage 1b is still producing apertures (8 parallel lanes).
- 2026-10-16 20:5xZ（阶段 12：E047 措辞按 RT-24 收窄 + RT-23/RT-25 分诊）：P18 端到端模拟的功率必须按统计量分开引（E047/T172/R026，Provisional 暂定；R029/D70）——那个 “0.70 → 0.90 keV 的向外升在 93.5% 的实现里以 ≥ 2σ 被探测到” 说的是全角度 2–12′ 斜率；与真实折叠图上逐楔 2–8′ 检验对应的统计量功率只有 27–36%（大轴/中轴/小轴楔 0.34/0.355/0.27）→ 真实图“没看到”这种上升，并不排除单个楔里存在它；93.5% 在修掉一次重复计算 vignetting 的归一化错误之前是 62%。模拟真值的折叠网格与拟合器逐位相同 → 响应误差未测。S7b 在逐点 99%（Holm 后 97%）上被否定，但真实数据的盘 − 小轴差（−0.030 keV）与 S7b 自己的（−0.036）几乎相同 → 被否定的只是 S7b 那条径向律，不是冷却流这个大类；S7a/S7c 不能被稳健排除（S7a 的 p = 0.045/0.065/0.075，随背景 −10/0/+10% 而变）。两相 S6 的单温 Fe-L 偏差按臂而变：+0.067 keV（sol）vs +0.172 keV（独立臂） → 引作范围。红队：RT-23（Q-B 的 Chandra 半边）已分诊 → R028/D69：Chandra 2–10′ 的“环”其实只有 35–62% 的部分环带（8–10′ 的两个 ObsID 各盖对面一半），共同 kT 检验探不到 ΔkT ≲ 0.27 keV 的差 → “Chandra 等温”不能用来反对 XMM 的外升；RT-24（E047 模拟）与 RT-25（mask/强度）已分诊 → R029/R030/D70；RT-26（OS 一致性）与 RT-27（拟合能段/P16）运行中（待定）。mask（R030）：D64“保留全套 v2 mask”的判定不变，但“不用全套点源 mask 会偏 +0.2 keV”这条是在 0.4–3.2 keV 上量的，而 as-run 拟合 notice 的是 0.375–9.0 keV；被 mask 挡掉的光主要是 M104 自身的光与恒星 → 机制待定，待 as-run 能段重拟合。
- 2026-10-16 20:5xZ (stage 12: the E047 wording narrowed after RT-24 + the RT-23/RT-25 triage): the P18 mock's power must be quoted per statistic (E047/T172/R026, Provisional; R029/D70) — the "0.70 → 0.90 keV outward rise is detected at ≥ 2σ in 93.5 % of the draws" refers to the all-angle 2–12′ slope; the statistic matching the real folded map's per-wedge 2–8′ test has a power of only 27–36 % (major/middle/minor wedge 0.34/0.355/0.27) → the real map's failure to see such a rise does not exclude it inside a single wedge; the 93.5 % was 62 % before a double-counted vignetting normalisation was fixed. The mock truth's folding grid is bit-for-bit the fitter's → response error is untested. S7b is disfavoured at 99 % pointwise (97 % after Holm), but the real data's disk − minor difference (−0.030 keV) is essentially the same as S7b's own (−0.036) → what is rejected is the S7b radial law, not cooling flow as a class; S7a/S7c cannot be robustly excluded (S7a's p = 0.045/0.065/0.075 as the background moves −10/0/+10 %). The two-phase S6 one-temperature Fe-L bias is arm-dependent: +0.067 keV (sol) vs +0.172 keV (independent arm) → quote it as a range. Red teams: RT-23 (the Chandra half of Q-B) is triaged → R028/D69: the Chandra 2–10′ "rings" are only 35–62 % partial annuli (the two 8–10′ ObsIDs cover opposite halves) and the common-kT test cannot detect a ΔkT below ≈ 0.27 keV → "Chandra isothermal" cannot be used against the XMM rise; RT-24 (the E047 mock) and RT-25 (mask/intensity) are triaged → R029/R030/D70; RT-26 (OS consistency) and RT-27 (fit band / P16) are running (Pending). Mask (R030): the D64 verdict "keep the full v2 mask" stands, but the "+0.2 keV bias without the full point mask" was measured on 0.4–3.2 keV while the as-run fit notices 0.375–9.0 keV; the light the mask removes is mostly M104's own light and stars → the mechanism is open (Pending), awaiting a refit on the as-run band.
- 2026-10-16 14:2xZ（阶段 10：折叠 2D kT 图 v2 + v18 合同更正）：PI 12:2xZ 要求的四象限折叠 2D 温度图 v2已出（E046/T171，Provisional 暂定，首页与状态页 §2h 六图）——四象限关于光学长/短轴折叠（每箱约 4 倍计数，对称性经 N−S/E−W 两半检验，1–2 个 5–7′ 30–60° 箱不安全 → 天空面板只叫"对称模型展示"）；2–12′ 的逐箱 kT 中位带为 0.70–0.80 keV（逐箱范围 0.53–0.89 keV，全局 0.736 keV，8/21 箱在带外——措辞按 RT-20/D68/R025 收窄），全角度斜率 +0.009 keV/角分（95 % [−0.003, +0.020]，+1.5σ）→ 对这种单温代理而言无 ≥ 2σ 的内冷外热；每 5′ 升 0.1 keV 的梯度在 E046 的单温代理注入里 91% 的次数能被找回（仅这一个温代理的自检；与真实逐楔 2–8′ 检验对应的统计量在 E047 端到端模拟里功率只有 27–36%，所以这 91% 不是探测功率）；盘楔外箱 0.85–0.88 vs 小轴楔 0.61–0.77 keV 只是提示（≈ 1.4σ，pn0 主导）；MOS2 与 pn0 逐箱一致（p = 0.60）；pn0 QPB 按 M104 自己的 0.772 ± 0.016 缩放（测试用）把斜率推到 ≈ 2σ → 趋势对背景敏感；< 2′ 核被 v2 mask 遮住，冷却流在此不可检验（D66 定义 + P18 模拟，待定）；E045 的内区 N−S +0.10 keV 提示经 RT-19 多重比较后降为 Questioned（R022）。v18 合同更正（B025/R023，RT-18 重放）：v18 实际拟合源 0.375–9.0 keV、背景 0.375–6.23 keV（脚本注释的 0.4–3.2 keV 是错的，Sherpa notice/ignore 取并集）；RASS 过滤器损坏；P16 测量其对已存 kT 的影响（待定，新增开问题行）；mask 阶梯 +0.18…+0.22 keV 数字按 0.4–3.2 keV 测量重新定界（R021），但"保留全套 v2 mask"的判定（D64）不变。红队 19 支已分诊，RT-20（攻击折叠图）/RT-21（B025 后的阶段 5 规格书）运行中。
- 2026-10-16 14:2xZ (stage 10: the folded 2D kT map v2 + the v18-contract correction): the four-quadrant-folded 2D temperature map v2 the PI asked for at 12:2xZ is out (E046/T171, Provisional; home page and state §2h, six figures) — the four quadrants folded about the optical major/minor axes (≈4× counts per bin; the symmetry was tested with N−S/E−W halves and 1–2 cells at 5–7′ 30–60° are unsafe, so the sky panel is called only a "symmetric model display"); the per-bin kT over 2–12′ has a median band of 0.70–0.80 keV (per-bin range 0.53–0.89 keV; global 0.736 keV; 8/21 bins outside the band — wording narrowed per RT-20/D68/R025) and the all-angle slope is +0.009 keV/arcmin (95 % [−0.003, +0.020], +1.5σ) → no inner-cool/outer-hot trend at ≥ 2σ for this one-temperature proxy; a gradient of +0.1 keV per 5′ is recovered 91 % of the time in E046's own one-temperature-proxy injection (that proxy's self-test only; the statistic matching the real per-wedge 2–8′ test has a power of only 27–36 % in the E047 end-to-end mock, so this 91 % is not a detection power); the disk wedge's outer cells 0.85–0.88 vs the minor wedge 0.61–0.77 keV are suggestive only (≈ 1.4σ, pn0-driven); MOS2 and pn0 agree bin by bin (p = 0.60); scaling pn0's QPB to M104's own 0.772 ± 0.016 (test-only) pushes the slope to ≈ 2σ → the trend is background-sensitive; the core inside 2′ is masked by v2, so a cooling flow cannot be tested here (the D66 definition + the P18 mock, pending); E045's inner N−S +0.10 keV hint is downgraded to Questioned after RT-19's multiplicity check (R022). The v18-contract correction (B025/R023, replayed by RT-18): v18 as run fits source 0.375–9.0 keV and background 0.375–6.23 keV (the script comment's "0.4–3.2 keV" is wrong — Sherpa's notice/ignore take a union); the RASS filter is corrupt; P16 measures its effect on the saved kT (pending, a new open-problem row); the mask ladder's +0.18…+0.22 keV number was measured on 0.4–3.2 keV and is re-scoped (R021), but the "keep the full v2 mask" verdict (D64) stands. 19 red teams triaged; RT-20 (attacking the folded map) and RT-21 (the stage-5 specification after B025) are running.
- 2026-10-16 11:34Z（第三次刷新 + 修正轮 1）：Q-B 只由 D55 预注册的匹配合同测试判定，但暂停——阶段 1 口径谱缺 v2 mask（B023，执行器在任何拟合前抓住）→ 阶段 1b 重抽（内容门已过，引擎恢复合同不允许复用 B3 → 全新整跑）；Chandra-only 与 0.725 keV 等温一致（D56；D61 更正：ACIS-I 全前照芯片，非 S3；污染模型 ≤ 0.012 keV）；E040 事件级复现（ARF +4%）；2D 强度阶段 2 + 注入检验（E042/R016：2–5′ 与 β 椭圆率一致，≥+30% 双锥排除）；2D kT 阶段 3（E043/R018：E3 + cone45，双臂一致，共同足迹 56%）；mask 阶梯"轻 mask"结论被 RT-17 推翻（R020/D64：v18 无自由源幂律 → 全套 v2 mask 保留、阶段 B 取消；B024：两次从声明而非最终状态写前提）；Z = 0.3 不是外升成因（D63：Z = 1.5 真值只低 0.017 keV）；文献表（Li+2007/2011、2026 SZ、Igarashi+2014：平 kT 无法区分束缚气体与慢风）；红队 17 支已分诊，RT-18（v18 合同审计）/RT-19（生产图）运行中。
- 2026-10-16 11:34Z (third refresh + fix round 1): Q-B is decided only by the D55 pre-registered matched-contract test, but it is paused — the stage-1 aperture spectra lack the v2 mask (B023, caught by an executor before any fit) → stage 1b re-extracts them (content gate passed; the engine's resume contract admits no lane reusing B3 → a fresh full run); Chandra-only is consistent with isothermal 0.725 keV (D56; D61 corrects: ACIS-I, all front-illuminated chips, not S3; contamination model ≤ 0.012 keV); E040 event-level reproduction (ARF +4 %); 2D intensity stage 2 + injection test (E042/R016: 2–5′ consistent with β ellipticity, ≥ +30 % bicone excluded); 2D kT stage 3 (E043/R018: E3 + cone45, both arms agree, common footprint 56 %); the mask ladder's "lighter mask" conclusion was overturned by RT-17 (R020/D64: v18 has no free source power law → the full v2 mask stays, stage B cancelled; B024: two premises written from declarations rather than final states); Z = 0.3 is not the cause of the rise (D63: a Z = 1.5 truth reads only 0.017 keV low); the literature table (Li+2007/2011, the 2026 SZ paper, Igarashi+2014: a flat kT profile cannot separate bound gas from a slow wind); 17 red teams triaged, RT-18 (the v18-contract audit) / RT-19 (the production maps) running.
- 2026-10-15 13:09Z（首次 8 小时刷新）：Q-A 阶段 2 裁定内区参考 = MOS2 单相机（D48/I067），外区/边缘/2D 未合格，阶段 3 运行中；Chandra-only profile（E037）与 J-linked profile（T155）每 ≤1σ 一致；亮度图完成；2D 温度图按 D49 转入代理探索；红队 RT-01/RT-02 启动。
- 2026-10-15 21:49Z（第二次刷新）：Q-A 阶段 3（S4 外区/边缘未合格，测试偏差 ≤ 0.05 keV → D51 探索性引用）；阶段 4（8–10′ 张力 = 合同不匹配，I070/D52）；Fe-L 硬度第二方法平温（I068，RT-06 修订：单温反演平，等温性未确立）；2D 代理阶段 2（E038 + RT-07：校准区间 ≲0.08–0.11 keV、N>S 仅提示）；红队 6 支已分诊（RT-01 存活、RT-03 J-linked 非独立、RT-05 mask 61% → D53）；外区 15–45′ profile Questioned（E039）；Virgo 阶段 1 运行中。刷新期间新增（D54，21:55Z）：RT-08 撤回 I070 主表述（→ Questioned）、RT-09 修订 ±0.05 keV 口径（逐拟合 68% ≈ ±0.15 keV、组合压力未测）；RT-04/RT-10 启动；0501/0601 ODF 已下载校验。
- 2026-10-15 13:09Z (first 8-hour refresh): Q-A stage 2 sets the inner reference to MOS2-only (D48/I067), outer/edge/2D unqualified, stage 3 running; the Chandra-only profile (E037) and the J-linked profile (T155) agree within 1σ per ring; the intensity map is done; the 2D kT map moves to proxy exploration per D49; red teams RT-01/RT-02 launched.
- 2026-10-15 21:49Z (second refresh): Q-A stage 3 (S4 outer/edge not qualified, tested biases ≤ 0.05 keV → D51 exploratory quoting); stage 4 (the 8–10′ tension = contract mismatch, I070/D52); the Fe-L hardness second method is flat (I068, RT-06 amendment: the one-T inversion is flat, isothermality not established); 2D proxy stage 2 (E038 + RT-07: calibrated bounds ≲0.08–0.11 keV, N>S a hint only); 6 red teams triaged (RT-01 survives, RT-03 J-linked not independent, RT-05 mask 61 % → D53); the outer 15–45′ profile Questioned (E039); Virgo stage 1 running. During the refresh (D54, 21:55Z): RT-08 withdrew I070's headline (→ Questioned), RT-09 amended the ±0.05 keV wording (per-fit 68 % ≈ ±0.15 keV, the combined stress untested); RT-04/RT-10 launched; the 0501/0601 ODFs downloaded and verified.
- 2026-10-15（阶段 2 修订）：Q-C 13′ 超出改判为假象（I065/B020）——v18 保存的 flux 本就是每 arcmin²，旧 flux/area 双重归一；图与文字全部更正。Q-A 试点结果（无策略认证，T153）、Q-B 搁置与逐仪器路线（D46）、GTI 保留 2.filter（I066）、mask 规则 v2 与"残余必须建模"（E035）、Virgo 再抽谱计划（D47）入表。新增开问题：MOS1 静态硬过剩。
- 2026-10-15 (stage-2 revision): the Q-C 13′ excess is reclassified as an artefact (I065/B020) — the v18 saved flux was already per arcmin², so the old flux/area double-normalised; figure and text corrected throughout. The Q-A pilot result (no strategy certified, T153), the Q-B parking and per-instrument route (D46), keeping GTI 2.filter (I066), mask rule v2 with "the residual must be modelled" (E035), and the Virgo re-reduction plan (D47) entered the tables. New open problem: the MOS1 quiescent hard excess.
- 2026-10-15：手册首次构建（H-XART-001）；PI 新增四问（Q-A…Q-D），四个研究 job 派出。
- 2026-10-15: first handbook build (H-XART-001); the PI added four questions (Q-A…Q-D) and four research jobs were dispatched.
- 2026-07-15：D45 — P0 反馈检验 NO-GO（full-nuisance 区间过零），P1 停止。
- 2026-07-15: D45 — P0 feedback test NO-GO (full-nuisance interval crosses zero); P1 stopped.
- 2026-10-05/06：Chandra+XMM 联合管线停在 8/20 PASS。
- 2026-10-05/06: the Chandra+XMM joint pipeline stalled at 8/20 PASS.
数据截至
Data as of
2026-10-17 15:23Z（cognition-os/sessions/2026-10-14.md 从 22:50Z 起加 sessions/2026-10-16.md 到 23:25Z 与 2026-10-17 节到 14:35Z 的全部条目；07_REVISION_LOG.md R013–R049；04_DECISION_LOG.md D55–D89；03_TRUST_TABLE.md T163–T175；08_RUNNING.md 14:35Z；REDTEAM_QUEUE.md RT-10…RT-44；E040–E050、B022–B028、references/literature_m104_hot_halo_2026-10-16.md；本手册读者级红队 RT-32 的 REPORT.hermes.md）。运行中的 job（P19 的 Chandra 匹配扇区重拟合、红队 RT-43 与 RT-44、冷启动演练 6）结果待定，本手册不引它们的数字；已完成并写入本页的：RT-20/R025/D68、RT-21/D67、RT-22/R027、RT-23/R028/D69、RT-24/R029/D70、RT-25/R030/D70、RT-26/R031/D71、RT-27/R032/D72、RT-28/R033/D73、RT-29/R034/D74、RT-30/R035/D74、RT-31/R036/D76、RT-32/R037/D77、RT-37/R044/D84、RT-38/R041/R043、RT-39/R045/D85、RT-40 与 RT-42/R048/D88、RT-41/R047/D87、P16、P18 sol 臂（E047/T172/R026）、P20（E048/T173/R039/D79）、P21（E050/T175/R049/D89）、P22 与阶段 5b（R045/D85、R046/D86）、阶段 5（E049/T174/R040/D80）、冷启动演练 3。
2026-10-17 15:23Z (all cognition-os/sessions/2026-10-14.md entries from 22:50Z plus sessions/2026-10-16.md to 23:25Z and the 2026-10-17 section to 14:35Z; 07_REVISION_LOG.md R013–R049; 04_DECISION_LOG.md D55–D89; 03_TRUST_TABLE.md T163–T175; 08_RUNNING.md 14:35Z; REDTEAM_QUEUE.md RT-10…RT-44; E040–E050, B022–B028, references/literature_m104_hot_halo_2026-10-16.md; this handbook's own reader-level red team RT-32's REPORT.hermes.md). The running jobs (P19's Chandra matched-sector re-fit, red teams RT-43 and RT-44, and cold-start drill 6) are pending, and this handbook quotes none of their numbers; done and written into this page: RT-20/R025/D68, RT-21/D67, RT-22/R027, RT-23/R028/D69, RT-24/R029/D70, RT-25/R030/D70, RT-26/R031/D71, RT-27/R032/D72, RT-28/R033/D73, RT-29/R034/D74, RT-30/R035/D74, RT-31/R036/D76, RT-32/R037/D77, RT-37/R044/D84, RT-38/R041/R043, RT-39/R045/D85, RT-40 and RT-42/R048/D88, RT-41/R047/D87, P16, P18's sol arm (E047/T172/R026), P20 (E048/T173/R039/D79), P21 (E050/T175/R049/D89), P22 and stage 5b (R045/D85, R046/D86), stage 5 (E049/T174/R040/D80) and cold-start drill 3.