XARTATOMS · M104 热晕 X 射线分析手册XARTATOMS · M104 hot-halo X-ray analysis handbook

面向大一物理学生的半实时工作台A semi-live workbench for a first-year physics undergraduate
目录(全部页面)Contents (all pages)

组会(Meetings):每个活跃 UTC 日一块,分成果 / 工作 / 问题 / 待 PI 决定四栏,每条结果都带信任状态(被推翻或被红队质疑的结论不写成普通结果),问题栏包含 agent 自己的错误与更正。最新一块 = 2026-10-17(阶段 5 判定 AMBIGUOUS;P21/P24/P25 收官;待 PI 决定 = P23)。

Group meetings: one block per active UTC day, split into results / work / problems / PI decisions pending, every result carrying its trust state (an overturned or red-teamed claim is never written as a plain result), and the problems column includes the agent's own errors and corrections. The newest block is 2026-10-17 (stage 5's verdict AMBIGUOUS; P21/P24/P25 close; PI decisions pending = P23).

XARTATOMS 研究 M104(草帽星系)的热气体晕:用 XMM-Newton 与 Chandra 的 X 射线光谱,测出晕内气体的温度、密度、熵随半径的分布,并检验“引力束缚的静力气体”与“反馈加热的风”两种图景。数据是 XMM 的三次观测(中心 0900170101 加两个偏置指向),拟合用 Sherpa 的 APEC 热等离子体模型加多种背景成分。当前科学基线是 v18 拟合管线。

XARTATOMS studies the hot-gas halo of M104 (the Sombrero Galaxy): using X-ray spectra from XMM-Newton and Chandra it measures how the temperature, density and entropy of the halo gas change with radius, and tests the two competing pictures — a gravitationally bound hydrostatic gas versus a feedback-heated wind. The data are three XMM observations (central 0900170101 plus two offset pointings); the fitting uses Sherpa with an APEC thermal-plasma model plus several background components. The current science baseline is the v18 fitting pipeline.

cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md(One-paragraph project summary)/ CLAUDE.md(repo root;cognition-os/CLAUDE.md 不存在,RT-45 的 OBJ-5 已订正)

项目骨架(最新)

Project skeleton (latest)

XMM EPIC + Chandra event files ESAS / SAS extraction source + QPB + SP + ARF/RMF v18 joint fitting (Sherpa) 1T APEC + background model radial kT profile ≈ 0.72–0.76 keV inside 23 kpc beta-model deprojection n_e(r) → entropy K 2D maps (open) intensity map; kT map waits for Q-A SZ / X-ray tension parked (S04)

数据流:事件文件 → ESAS/SAS 提取 → v18 联合拟合 → 径向温度/熵轮廓 →(待做)2D 图。红色虚线为已搁置的 SZ 对比。 Data flow: event files → ESAS/SAS extraction → v18 joint fitting → radial kT/entropy profiles → (to do) 2D maps. The dashed red box is the parked SZ comparison.

四问目标(2026-10-14 PI 新增)

The four-question objectives (added by the PI on 2026-10-14)

目标Objective 问题Question 状态Status 当前最佳数字(来源)Best current number (source) 趋势Trend
Q-AQ-A 哪种本地拟合策略给出的投影温度可靠? Which local fitting strategy gives a reliable projected temperature? QuestionedQuestioned 内区(2–4′)参考 = MOS2 单相机(S3):四个背景错设臂全部通过(偏差 +0.008…+0.014 keV,覆盖率 0.71–0.77);8–10′ 无策略合格(kT ≤ 1 keV 上界撞墙 4–11%,CXB×1.1 偏差 +0.035 keV);视场边缘与 2D 图未合格;红队 RT-02 后 D48 收窄为 Questioned(MOS2 优于 MOS1 成立,但 MOS2 自身未被证明干净 — D50/T159)— cognition-os/insights/I067_*.md;cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D50。新增(2026-10-17 03:14Z,R036/D76):“MOS2-only 是内区参考”只在 kT ∈ [0.45, 1.0] keV 成立——该区间外 MOS2 与 MOS1 的差超过 1σ,S3 的四个背景臂没有覆盖,因此 Q-A 的答案不能外推到区间外。新增(2026-10-16,R020/D64/B024):PI 提出“v2 mask 把盘侧遮得太狠”,mask 深度阶梯阶段 A 检验后被红队 RT-17 推翻——v18 实际把源幂律(SrcPo)固定在 0,所谓“轻 mask 只偏 ≤ 0.012 keV”需要一个 v18 没有的自由幂律成分;按 v18 的真实合同,只遮延展源+恒星会把 2–4′ kT 推高 +0.18…+0.22 keV → 全套 v2 点源 mask 在所有 v18 合同谱、Fe-L 硬度与 2D 图上继续使用,窄阶段 B 取消。教训:写 brief/决策前必须读模型成分的最终状态(所有 set/freeze 之后),不能只读声明(B024) Inner (2–4′) reference = MOS2-only (S3): passes all four background-misspecification arms (bias +0.008…+0.014 keV, coverage 0.71–0.77); 8–10′ none qualified (kT ≤ 1 keV bound hits 4–11 %, CXB×1.1 bias +0.035 keV); edge and the 2D map unqualified; after red team RT-02, D48 is narrowed to Questioned (MOS2 preferred over MOS1 stands, but MOS2 itself is not shown clean — D50/T159) — cognition-os/insights/I067_*.md; cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D50. New (2026-10-17 03:14Z, R036/D76): "MOS2-only is the inner reference" holds only for kT in [0.45, 1.0] keV — outside that range the MOS2–MOS1 difference exceeds 1σ and S3's four background arms do not cover it, so Q-A's answer must not be extrapolated outside that range. New (2026-10-16, R020/D64/B024): the PI asked whether the v2 mask masks the disk side too hard; the mask-depth-ladder stage A test was overturned by red team RT-17 — v18 as run freezes the source power law (SrcPo) at 0, so the "lighter mask biases kT by only ≤ 0.012 keV" result needs a free power-law component that v18 does not have; under the literal v18 contract, masking only extended sources + stars pushes the 2–4′ kT up by +0.18…+0.22 keV → the full v2 point mask stays for every v18-contract spectrum, the Fe-L hardness and the 2D maps, and the narrow stage B is cancelled. Lesson: read a model component's final state (after all set/freeze lines), not its declaration, before writing a brief or a decision (B024)
Q-BQ-B Chandra+XMM 联合的 M104 温度 profile 是什么(10′ 内)? What is the Chandra+XMM kT profile of M104 (within 10′)? AMBIGUOUS(功率不足)AMBIGUOUS (underpowered) 径向 kT 问题(升 vs 平)开放,只由预注册的匹配合同测试(D55)判定:扇区谱外热(A2 +0.22 / A1 +0.37 keV 点对比,外区未合格);单温 Fe-L 硬度平(0.77–0.79 keV,2–12′,I068/T160;两相混合可给出同样 H,RT-06);Chandra-only 与单一温度 0.725 keV 一致(p = 0.54,D56;内环在 I3 瞄准芯片、外环在 FI 芯片,D61 更正 S3 说法;污染模型版本影响 ≤ 0.012 keV)——但红队 RT-23 已分诊(R028/D69):这条不能用来反对 XMM 的外升,因为 Chandra 2–10′ 的“环”其实只有 35–62% 的部分环带(8–10′ 的两个 ObsID 各盖对面一半),而共同 kT 检验探不到 ΔkT ≲ 0.27 keV 的差(8–10′ 的 95% 上界 0.954 keV 包含 XMM 的 0.90)→ “Chandra 等温”既没有匹配的孔径、也没有功率去证实或否证 XMM 的升;“张力 = 合同不匹配”已撤回(R009);测试暂停:Virgo 阶段 1 的口径谱缺 v2 mask(B023)→ 阶段 1b 重抽后已交付(D76c:9/9 口径、MANIFEST 506/506 OK、BACKSCAL 真实、REG 身份 PASS),但交付的 QPB 在全部 9 个口径里大了 1e6–1e7 倍(阶段 5 执行器发现,B026/R037/D77)→ 阶段 5 于 2026-10-17 03:14Z 重派、改用经验证的修复 back_pi(derived-QPB)。阶段 5 结果(2026-10-17 07:15Z,E049/T174/R040/D80;Provisional 暂定,derived-QPB):预注册的 D55 判定 = AMBIGUOUS(含糊)——ΔkT = kT(8–10′) − kT(2–4′)(目标 0 = 不升)的 95% 区间:谱拟合 S4 天空 A +0.13(−0.21…+0.42)/ 天空 B +0.19(−0.004…+0.42,Δχ²(0) = 3.67 < 3.84);Fe-L 硬度 天空 A +0.01(−0.32…+0.46)/ 天空 B +0.07(−0.13…+0.33)。最小可探测 ΔkT:0.43 keV 只是高斯近似(零假设 ΔkT 的 1.96·σ);按预先声明的非参数定义(50% 功率、95% 区间),两种方法的最小可探测 ΔkT 都大于 0.50 keV(注入到 +0.50 仍未达到)。给大一学生的大白话:这些数据既没有显示、也没有排除约 0.5 keV 以内的上升——这个检验太弱(功率不足),它不是“没有上升”的证明。两个方法是同一个投影用了两遍(同一批 MOS2 谱),不是两次独立探测。注意事项:QPB 是推导出来的修复(交付的 back.pi 大 1e6–1e7 倍);天空 B 是事后的,且拟合在同一个 8–10′ 谱上(把天空幅度作剖面扫描后,S 的区间变成 −0.054…≥+0.535,上端开放);只用了一台相机。独立专家复核(Opus,D59a;来源 .agent/jobs/2026-10-17-stage5-expert-rederivation/REPORT.opus.md)确认 AMBIGUOUS,并给出上述两点修正(R042/D82)。P22 的 QPB 重查待定;红队 RT-15(0.7 keV 前景成分:v18 该槽位实为 0 且冻结 → D62 只是外区 kT 的附带假设)与 RT-16(固定 Z = 0.3:Z = 1.5 真值按 Z = 0.3 拟合在 8–10′ 只低 0.017 keV → 不是外升成因,D63)已分诊。组合压力对照的判据(D55/D71,RT-26 22:02Z 重放 D54/I069 算术后加的预先补充):SP+CXB+QPB 的同号线性相加是 +0.142 keV,比 0.10 keV 的门还大,所以该对照按阶段 5 在阶段 1b 产品上实测的那一条组合臂来判,不按线性总和判;如果阶段 5 的组合臂本身把 ΔkT 移动 ≥ 0.10 keV,判定一律封顶为 AMBIGUOUS(实测组合臂的最大移动是 S 0.081 / H 0.006 keV,未触发该封顶)。 — cognition-os/experiments/E049_*.md;cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D80/D82;cognition-os/07_REVISION_LOG.md R040/R042 The radial kT question (rise vs flat) is open, decided only by the pre-registered matched-contract test (D55): sector spectra are hotter outside (A2 +0.22 / A1 +0.37 keV point contrasts, outer unqualified); the one-temperature Fe-L hardness is flat (0.77–0.79 keV over 2–12′, I068/T160; a two-phase mixture can give the same H, RT-06); Chandra-only is consistent with one temperature 0.725 keV (p = 0.54, D56; the inner ring is on the I3 aim-point chip and the outer ring on FI chips — D61 corrects the "S3" wording; the contamination-model version moves kT by ≤ 0.012 keV) — but red team RT-23 is triaged (R028/D69): this cannot be used against the XMM rise, because the Chandra 2–10′ "rings" are only 35–62 % partial annuli (the two 8–10′ ObsIDs cover opposite halves) and the common-kT test cannot detect a ΔkT below ≈ 0.27 keV (the 8–10′ 95 % upper bound of 0.954 keV contains the XMM 0.90) → "Chandra isothermal" has neither a matched aperture nor the power to corroborate or refute the XMM rise; "tension = contract mismatch" is withdrawn (R009); the test was paused: the Virgo stage-1 aperture spectra lack the v2 mask (B023) → stage 1b has since been delivered (D76c: 9/9 apertures, MANIFEST 506/506 OK, real BACKSCAL, REG identity PASS), but the delivered QPB is 1e6–1e7× too large in all 9 apertures (found by the stage-5 executor, B026/R037/D77) → stage 5 was re-dispatched on 2026-10-17 03:14Z on the validated repair back.pi (derived-QPB). Stage 5's result (2026-10-17 07:15Z, E049/T174/R040/D80; Provisional, derived-QPB): the pre-registered D55 verdict is AMBIGUOUS — the 95 % intervals for ΔkT = kT(8–10′) − kT(2–4′) (target 0 = no rise) are: the spectral fit S4 sky A +0.13 (−0.21…+0.42) / sky B +0.19 (−0.004…+0.42, Δχ²(0) = 3.67 < 3.84); the Fe-L hardness sky A +0.01 (−0.32…+0.46) / sky B +0.07 (−0.13…+0.33). The minimum detectable ΔkT: 0.43 keV is only the Gaussian approximation (1.96·σ of the null ΔkT); under the pre-declared non-parametric definition (50 % power, 95 % interval) the minimum detectable ΔkT is larger than 0.50 keV for both methods (not reached up to +0.50). In plain words for a first-year student: these data neither show nor exclude a rise below about 0.5 keV — the test is too weak (underpowered), and it is not a "no rise". The two methods are one projection applied twice (the same MOS2 spectra), not two independent detections. Caveats: the QPB is a derived repair (the delivered back.pi is 1e6–1e7× too large); sky B is post hoc and was fitted on the same 8–10′ spectrum (with the sky amplitudes profiled, S's interval becomes −0.054…≥+0.535, its upper end open); one camera only. An independent expert re-derivation (Opus, D59a; source .agent/jobs/2026-10-17-stage5-expert-rederivation/REPORT.opus.md) confirms AMBIGUOUS and supplies those two corrections (R042/D82). The P22 QPB re-check is pending; red teams RT-15 (a 0.7 keV foreground component: that v18 slot is actually 0 and frozen → D62 is only a stated assumption for the outer kT) and RT-16 (fixed Z = 0.3: a Z = 1.5 truth fitted with Z = 0.3 reads only 0.017 keV low at 8–10′ → not the cause of the rise, D63) are triaged. The criterion for the combined-stress control (D55/D71; a pre-data addendum made by RT-26 at 22:02Z after replaying the arithmetic of D54/I069): the SP+CXB+QPB same-sign linear sum is +0.142 keV, larger than the 0.10 keV gate, so that control is judged on the measured stage-5 combined arm on the stage-1b products, not on the linear sum; if the stage-5 combined arm itself shifts ΔkT by ≥ 0.10 keV, the verdict is capped at AMBIGUOUS (the measured combined arm's largest shift is S 0.081 / H 0.006 keV, so that cap was not triggered). — cognition-os/experiments/E049_*.md; cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D80/D82; cognition-os/07_REVISION_LOG.md R040/R042
Q-CQ-C 为何 ~13′ 亮度反而比内侧和 15–30′ 更亮? Why is the intensity brighter at ~13′ than inside and at 15–30′? Resolved: artefactResolved: artefact 假象(Provisional,I065):flux 已是每 arcmin²(B020),旧 flux/area 双重归一;凸起大小 = 仅 Angle2、1.0–2.0,取决于 bin 配对/世代(任何世代都没有保存流量误差;1.37 只是其中一个世代),冻结 kT 后 1.07;图像 1.041±0.068 无超出;WARP 星系团拟合为 0 — cognition-os/insights/I065_*.md;经受住红队 RT-01(4 条次要、0 条实质;图像检验 −2.7σ 支持无超出,I065 修订)。2026-10-16 23:24Z:红队 RT-28 已分诊(R033/D73)——“图/v18 比值 1.00 → 3.32 沿径向上升”不是物理上升:它的 Angle1 行不可重放(R7-9 没有 .fitting 会话)、不可复现(R9-11 有三代,CSV 比可重放会话高 58%)或不显著(R11-13 Δstat 1.36;R12-14 Δstat 0.0),而可复现的 Angle2 是平的 1.26 → 1.18;图内检验(E041:R11–13/R9–11 = 0.949 ± 0.029 / 1.029 ± 0.037)仍显示无 13′ 超出 → R030 的“无像过剩不成立”本身被撤回,图/v18 分支不可检验,直到每个区域钉住一个 v18 世代(提案 P21:CoPI,需 PI;在钉住的 v18 合同上重跑 Angle1 R7-9…R12-14,也补上缺失的会话)。开放:外环拟合方法;15–45′ profile 为 Questioned(E039:偏移拟合简并/不自洽,需 0501 ODF + Virgo 重处理) Artefact (Provisional, I065): the saved flux is already per arcmin² (B020), so the old flux/area double-normalised; the bump size is Angle2-only, 1.0–2.0 depending on bin pairing/generation (no flux errors were ever saved; 1.37 is one generation), 1.07 with kT frozen; images 1.041±0.068 show no excess; the WARP cluster fits to 0 — cognition-os/insights/I065_*.md; it survived red team RT-01 (4 minor, 0 material objections; the image test at −2.7σ supports no excess, I065 amendment). 2026-10-16 23:24Z: red team RT-28 is triaged (R033/D73) — the "image/v18 ratio 1.00 → 3.32 rising radially" is not a physical rise: its Angle1 rows are unreplayable (R7-9 has no .fitting session), unreproducible (R9-11 exists in three generations, the CSV 58 % above the replayable session) or non-significant (R11-13 Δstat 1.36; R12-14 Δstat 0.0), while the reproducible Angle2 is flat at 1.26 → 1.18; the image-internal test (E041: R11–13/R9–11 = 0.949 ± 0.029 / 1.029 ± 0.037) still shows no 13′ excess → R030's "no image excess is false" is itself withdrawn, and the image/v18 branch is not testable until one v18 generation per region is pinned (proposed P21: CoPI, needs the PI; re-run Angle1 R7-9…R12-14 on the pinned v18 contract, which also supplies the missing session). Open: the outer-ring fit method; the 15–45′ profile is Questioned (E039: offset fits degenerate/inconsistent; needs the 0501 ODF + Virgo re-reduction)
Q-DQ-D 2D 强度图 + 2D 温度图(区分 feedback 与引力束缚气体) 2D intensity map + 2D kT map (feedback vs gravitationally bound gas) OpenOpen 亮度图已完成;2D 代理图(阶段 2,E038):Fe-L × 象限锚点;联合 MOS2+pn0 的小轴 vs 盘对比在 ≲ 0.08–0.11 keV 内(校准区间,随半径/几何变化,非对称:±45° 2–5′ [−0.056,+0.076] keV)——对比度响应 R≈0.67–1.0 决定灵敏度;N>S 只是提示(跨臂族 p≈1),不是探测(E038 + RT-07 修订)— cognition-os/experiments/E038_*.md(D49)。新增(2026-10-16):2D 强度(E042/R016)— 2–5′ 的盘对齐不对称(小轴/盘 0.674 ± 0.100)与平滑 β 椭圆率一致(注入预测 0.752 [0.656, 0.846]),≥ +30% 小轴双锥在 2–5′ 被排除;2D kT(E043/R018)— 最佳估计器 = Fe-L 2 能带 + MOS1(自由归一)在 cone45 bin 上(σ ×1.12,注入无偏),但只适用于 3 相机共同足迹(面积的 56%),第二臂一致;生产图(P12/E045):逐 bin 数值复现 阶段 3,读数 = 2–5′ 无小轴 vs 盘对比、内区 N−S +0.10 keV 提示(仅一种方法,待定;东箭头曾画成朝西,修正中,修好前不展示该图)。折叠 2D kT 图 v2(E046/T171,Provisional 暂定,见状态页 §2h):四象限关于光学长/短轴折叠(每箱约 4 倍计数),主估计器 E1 = MOS2 + pn0,v2 mask 全程应用;2–12′ 的逐箱 kT 中位带为 0.70–0.80 keV(逐箱范围 0.53–0.89 keV,全局 0.736 keV [0.723, 0.748],8/21 箱在带外——措辞按 RT-20/D68/R025 收窄),全角度斜率 +0.009 keV/角分(95 % [−0.003, +0.020],+1.5σ)→ 对这种单温代理而言无 ≥ 2σ 的内冷外热;每 5′ 升 0.1 keV 的梯度在 E046 的单温代理注入里 91% 的次数能被找回(仅这一个温代理的自检;与真实逐楔 2–8′ 检验对应的统计量在 E047 端到端模拟里功率只有 27–36%,所以这 91% 不是探测功率);盘楔外箱 0.85–0.88 vs 小轴楔 0.61–0.77 keV 只是提示(≈ 1.4σ,pn0 主导、近视场边缘);MOS2 与 pn0 逐箱一致(p = 0.60);pn0 QPB 按 M104 自己的 0.772 ± 0.016 缩放会把斜率推到 ≈ 2σ → 趋势对背景敏感(缩放仅测试用);< 2′ 核被 mask 遮住,冷却流在此不可检验;E045 的内区 N−S +0.10 keV 提示经 RT-19 多重比较后降为 Questioned(R022)— cognition-os/experiments/E046_*.md Intensity map done; the 2D proxy map (stage 2, E038): Fe-L × quadrant anchors; the joint MOS2+pn0 minor-axis vs disk contrast lies within ≲ 0.08–0.11 keV (calibrated intervals, radius/geometry-dependent, asymmetric: ±45° 2–5′ [−0.056,+0.076] keV) — the contrast response R≈0.67–1.0 sets the sensitivity; N>S is only a hint (cross-arm familywise p≈1), not a detection (E038 + RT-07 amendment) — cognition-os/experiments/E038_*.md (D49). New (2026-10-16): 2D intensity (E042/R016) — the 2–5′ disk-aligned asymmetry (minor/disk 0.674 ± 0.100) is consistent with smooth β ellipticity (injection prediction 0.752 [0.656, 0.846]); a ≥ +30 % minor-axis bicone is excluded at 2–5′; 2D kT (E043/R018) — the best estimator is the Fe-L 2-band + MOS1 (free normalisation) on cone45 bins (σ ×1.12, unbiased in injections), but only on the 3-camera common footprint (56 % of the area); the second arm agrees; the production maps (P12/E045) replay stage 3 exactly and read: no minor-axis vs disk contrast at 2–5′, an inner N−S +0.10 keV hint (one method only, pending; the East arrow was once drawn toward West — the fix is in progress and the map is not shown until it is). The folded 2D kT map v2 (E046/T171, Provisional; see state §2h): the four quadrants folded about the optical major/minor axes (≈4× counts per bin), primary estimator E1 = MOS2 + pn0, the v2 mask applied throughout; the per-bin kT over 2–12′ has a median band of 0.70–0.80 keV (per-bin range 0.53–0.89 keV; global 0.736 keV [0.723, 0.748]; 8/21 bins outside the band — wording narrowed per RT-20/D68/R025) and the all-angle slope is +0.009 keV/arcmin (95 % [−0.003, +0.020], +1.5σ) → no inner-cool/outer-hot trend at ≥ 2σ for this one-temperature proxy; a gradient of +0.1 keV per 5′ is recovered 91 % of the time in E046's own one-temperature-proxy injection (that proxy's self-test only; the statistic matching the real per-wedge 2–8′ test has a power of only 27–36 % in the E047 end-to-end mock, so this 91 % is not a detection power); the disk wedge's outer cells 0.85–0.88 vs the minor wedge 0.61–0.77 keV are suggestive only (≈ 1.4σ, pn0-driven, near the field edge); MOS2 and pn0 agree bin by bin (p = 0.60); scaling pn0's QPB to M104's own 0.772 ± 0.016 pushes the slope to ≈ 2σ → the trend is background-sensitive (the scaling is test-only); the core inside 2′ is masked, so a cooling flow cannot be tested here; E045's inner N−S +0.10 keV hint is downgraded to Questioned after RT-19's multiplicity check (R022) — cognition-os/experiments/E046_*.md

2D 温度图 v2(四象限折叠,E046/T171,暂定)

The 2D kT map v2 (four quadrants folded, E046/T171, Provisional)

总览图暂不展示(RT-32 的 OBJ-9,2026-10-17 04:06Z):E046 的六联总览图含一个显示缺陷(东箭头被画成朝西),而红队 RT-32 用 sha256 证实本手册此前嵌入的副本与修复前的 08:41Z 文件逐字节相同,项目里不存在任何修复后的版本 → 按第 13 步自己的承诺,本页不再展示该图;无缺陷的分图(折叠温度图两档、径向剖面、对称模型展示、偏差图)与全部数字见状态页 §2h。数值本身不受影响:2–12′ 的逐箱 kT 中位带为 0.70–0.80 keV(逐箱范围 0.53–0.89 keV,全局 0.736 keV),全角度斜率 +0.009 keV/角分(+1.5σ)→ 对这种单温代理而言无 ≥ 2σ 的内冷外热。

The overview figure is not shown for now (RT-32's OBJ-9, 2026-10-17 04:06Z): E046's six-panel overview carries a display defect (the East arrow drawn toward West), and red team RT-32 verified by sha256 that the copy this handbook had embedded is byte-identical to the pre-fix 08:41Z file, with no fixed version existing anywhere in the project → per Step 13's own promise, this page no longer shows that figure; the defect-free component figures (the folded temperature maps on both colour scales, the radial profiles, the symmetric model display, the deviation map) and all the numbers are on the state page §2h. The values themselves are unaffected: the per-bin kT over 2–12′ has a median band of 0.70–0.80 keV (per-bin range 0.53–0.89 keV; global 0.736 keV) and the all-angle slope is +0.009 keV/arcmin (+1.5σ) → no inner-cool/outer-hot trend at ≥ 2σ for this one-temperature proxy.

更早的科学目标

Older science objectives

目标Objective 状态Status 当前最佳数字(来源)Best current number (source)
密度/熵轮廓(S06 主线) Density/entropy profile (S06 main line) ProvisionalProvisional K ≈ 67 → 407 keV cm²(10–43 kpc);t_cool ≈ 10 → 137 Gyr — figure/radial_thermo_profiles_v18/entropy_cooling_time_profile_v18_v15beta.csv。kpc 用 D = 11.3 Mpc(1′ = 3.287 kpc,build_m104_radial_thermo_profiles.py:40;该距离未记录在 cognition-os)——与 2D kT 图的 8.9 Mpc 不同,见状态页 §1a K ≈ 67 → 407 keV cm² (10–43 kpc); t_cool ≈ 10 → 137 Gyr — figure/radial_thermo_profiles_v18/entropy_cooling_time_profile_v18_v15beta.csv. kpc uses D = 11.3 Mpc (1′ = 3.287 kpc, build_m104_radial_thermo_profiles.py:40; that distance is recorded nowhere in cognition-os) — a different distance from the 2D kT figures' 8.9 Mpc; see the state page §1a
SZ / X 射线张力(~2 倍差异) SZ / X-ray tension (~2× discrepancy) ParkedParked X 射线导出 SZ 比参考高约 2 倍;数据版本问题 — cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md(S04) X-ray-derived SZ is ~2× the reference; data-version issue — cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md (S04)

未解问题

Open problems

问题Problem 为什么重要Why it matters 最佳假设Best hypothesis 下一个检验Next test 负责人Owner 状态Status
Q-A:无策略被认证;全网格验证未跑,需加速 Q-A: no strategy certified; the full validation grid has not run and needs acceleration 没有“谁对谁错”的判据,任何温度图都建立在未验证的方法上 Without a criterion, every temperature map rests on an unvalidated method 内区参考已收窄(D50:MOS2 优于 MOS1 成立,MOS2 自身未证明干净;R036 再收窄:“MOS2-only 是内区参考”只在 kT ∈ [0.45, 1.0] keV 成立——在该区间外,MOS2 与 MOS1 的差超过 1σ,S3 的四个背景臂没有覆盖);外区/边缘仍不合格——S4 宽 kT 多起点合同的测试背景偏差 ≤ 0.05 keV,但严格合格门失败 → 外区 kT 只作探索性引用;D54 修订(RT-09):±0.05 keV 是逐臂中位偏差包络,逐拟合 68% 散布 ≈ ±0.15 keV 须由拟合区间给出,SP+CXB+QPB 组合压力未测(同号和 +0.14 keV @0.7 keV),撞顶 3/480(D51/D54/T162/I069) The inner reference is narrowed (D50: MOS2 preferred over MOS1 stands; MOS2 itself not shown clean; R036 narrows it further: "MOS2-only is the inner reference" holds only for kT in [0.45, 1.0] keV — outside that range the MOS2–MOS1 difference exceeds 1σ and S3's four background arms do not cover it); outer/edge still not qualified — the S4 wide-kT multi-start contract sees tested background biases ≤ 0.05 keV but fails the strict gate → outer kT stays exploratory; D54 amendment (RT-09): the ±0.05 keV is the median-bias envelope of one-at-a-time stress arms, the per-fit 68 % scatter ≈ ±0.15 keV must come from the fit interval, the combined SP+CXB+QPB stress is untested (same-sign sum +0.14 keV at 0.7 keV), ceiling hits 3/480 (D51/D54/T162/I069) 阶段 3/4 已完成(S4 外区/边缘/2D 均未过严格门);mask 深度阶梯阶段 A 的"内区谱可轻 mask"结论被 RT-17 推翻(R020/D64:v18 把 SrcPo 固定在 0,轻 mask 偏 2–4′ kT +0.18…+0.22 keV → 全套 v2 点源 mask 保留,窄阶段 B 取消);阶段 5 匹配合同测试(D55)已于 2026-10-17 03:14Z 重派(D76c)并已于 07:15Z 完成:判定 = AMBIGUOUS(功率不足)(E049/T174/R040/D80;derived-QPB)——谱拟合 S4 的 ΔkT(8–10′−2–4′) = +0.13(天空 A,95% −0.21…+0.42)/ +0.19(天空 B,−0.004…+0.42),Fe-L 硬度 +0.01(−0.32…+0.46)/ +0.07(−0.13…+0.33);最小可探测 ΔkT 的高斯近似是 0.43 keV,而按预先声明的非参数定义(50% 功率、95% 区间)两种方法都 > 0.50 keV(R042/D82)→ 这个检验太弱,不是“没有上升”;详见本表 Q-B 行与提案 P23 Stages 3/4 are done (S4 fails the strict gate in the outer/edge/2D cells); mask-depth-ladder stage A's "lighter mask safe for inner spectra" conclusion was overturned by RT-17 (R020/D64: v18 freezes SrcPo at 0, a lighter mask biases the 2–4′ kT by +0.18…+0.22 keV → the full v2 point mask stays, the narrow stage B is cancelled); the stage-5 matched-contract test (D55) was re-dispatched on 2026-10-17 03:14Z (D76c) and finished at 07:15Z: the verdict is AMBIGUOUS (underpowered) (E049/T174/R040/D80; derived-QPB) — the spectral fit S4's ΔkT(8–10′−2–4′) = +0.13 (sky A, 95 % −0.21…+0.42) / +0.19 (sky B, −0.004…+0.42) and the Fe-L hardness +0.01 (−0.32…+0.46) / +0.07 (−0.13…+0.33); the minimum detectable ΔkT's Gaussian approximation is 0.43 keV, while under the pre-declared non-parametric definition (50 % power, 95 % interval) both methods exceed 0.50 keV (R042/D82) → this test is too weak; it is not a "no rise"; see this table's Q-B row and proposal P23 I067/D48–D50;E044/D60;阶段 5 = D55/E049I067/D48–D50; E044/D60; stage 5 = D55/E049 待定 PendingPending
Q-B:预注册的匹配合同检验(阶段 5)已给出 AMBIGUOUS——功率不足,需更强的检验(P23) Q-B: the pre-registered matched-contract test (stage 5) returned AMBIGUOUS — underpowered, so a stronger test (P23) is needed 10′ 内的 Chandra+XMM 温度 profile 是四问之一,也是温度图的输入 The Chandra+XMM kT profile within 10′ is one of the four questions and an input to the temperature map J-linked(ACIS CXB 自由)0.718/0.757/0.782/0.934 keV;Chandra-only 与 v18 每 ≤1σ 一致;但 c_ACIS 常压在 0.7 下界、c_MOS2 在 4′ 外压 1.3 上界 → 联合归一化 Questioned(T155) J-linked (ACIS CXB free) 0.718/0.757/0.782/0.934 keV; Chandra-only agrees with v18 within 1σ per ring; but c_ACIS often sits at its 0.7 lower bound and c_MOS2 at 1.3 beyond 4′ → joint normalisation Questioned (T155) 阶段 5 已完成(2026-10-17 07:15Z,E049/T174/R040/D80;Provisional 暂定,derived-QPB):预注册的 D55 判定 = AMBIGUOUS(含糊)——功率不足,不是“没有上升”。ΔkT = kT(8–10′) − kT(2–4′)(目标 0)的 95% 区间:谱拟合 S4 天空 A +0.13(−0.21…+0.42)/ 天空 B +0.19(−0.004…+0.42,Δχ²(0) = 3.67 < 3.84);Fe-L 硬度 天空 A +0.01(−0.32…+0.46)/ 天空 B +0.07(−0.13…+0.33)。最小可探测 ΔkT:0.43 keV 只是高斯近似(零假设 ΔkT 的 1.96·σ);按预先声明的非参数定义(50% 功率、95% 区间)两种方法都大于 0.50 keV(注入到 +0.50 仍未达到)→ 用现有数据无法裁决 0.1 keV 量级的问题。两个方法是同一个投影用了两遍(同一批 MOS2 谱)。天空 B 是事后的、且拟合在同一个 8–10′ 谱上(剖面扫描后 S 的区间为 −0.054…≥+0.535,上端开放);只用一台相机。独立专家复核(Opus,D59a)确认 AMBIGUOUS(.agent/jobs/2026-10-17-stage5-expert-rederivation/REPORT.opus.md,R042/D82)。下一步 = 提案 P23(见本表最后一行):MOS2+pn0 在 8–10′、天空用偏置指向 0501/0601 固定,预期最小可探测 ≈ 0.3 keV(Provisional 暂定)→ 待定 PI。P22 的 QPB 重查待定(3/9 个口径已重新生成并通过量级门 R = 0.88–0.95,其余约 10:05Z 完成)。红队 RT-39(阶段 5 判定的措辞,2026-10-17,报告已出、尚未分诊)提了 12 条异议,但没有一条推翻 AMBIGUOUS:三条 D55 门(RISE 的下界、NO RESOLVED RISE 的上界、PROJECTION-COMPATIBLE 的触发条件)全部按其字面失败,所以 AMBIGUOUS 成立;被改变的是理由与措辞——(a) “0.43 keV 是 50% 功率下的最小可探测值”这个说法不成立(实测功率在 Δ = +0.50 处最高只有 19%,执行器自己的 JSON 里 50% 功率那一栏是空的);(b) 天空 B 的 95% 下界在插值网格上会在 −0.0150…+0.0135 keV 之间摆动(Δχ²(0) 在 3.22–4.31 之间跨过 3.84 的门)→ “差 0.004 keV 没过门”这句话没有误差棒;(c) “主天空 B”其实是在 8–10′ 这个环上自己拟合出来的(不是独立确定),那 0.004 keV 的边缘是从这个循环性继承来的;(d) 外环硬度估计的 95% “区间”有 41.8% 的样本被裁剪在反演分支端(0.45/1.22 keV),σ_D 的约 1/3 是设计造成的、不是数据;(e) QPB 尺度扫描(×0.80–1.40,已执行)显示天空 A 的 ΔkT 在 ×0.85 处翻号(−0.006 keV)并在 ±10% QPB 变化里摆动 ±0.10 keV,而天空 B 保持 +0.129…+0.228 → “QPB 锚点系统误差 ≈ 0”说得太强;(f) 2T 那一支只死在参数边界上(kT2 顶在预先注册的 5 keV 帽),4 条接受判据里满足了 3 条;(g) 内环 R2-4 的单温拟合本身被正式拒绝(p = 0.010 天空 B / 0.019 天空 A)→ ΔkT 的区间可能偏窄;(h) E049 的控制 breached 清单少列了一条(天空 A 的天空归一 ×1.2,S:−0.114 keV)。→ 判定不变,但这些都进了 E049 的措辞与限制清单;分诊待定。其他红队:RT-33/RT-34/RT-35 → R038/D78;RT-36(P19/P20 设计)无报告死亡;RT-37(Q-B 与文献对照,7 条实质)与 RT-38(P19/P21 设计,7 条)已于 10:14Z 分诊 → R044/D84;RT-40(P22 bundle)与 RT-41(折叠图统计量)运行中。见本页“研究进展”与状态页 §5 Stage 5 is done (2026-10-17 07:15Z, E049/T174/R040/D80; Provisional, derived-QPB): the pre-registered D55 verdict is AMBIGUOUS — underpowered, not a "no rise". The 95 % intervals for ΔkT = kT(8–10′) − kT(2–4′) (target 0) are: the spectral fit S4 sky A +0.13 (−0.21…+0.42) / sky B +0.19 (−0.004…+0.42, Δχ²(0) = 3.67 < 3.84); the Fe-L hardness sky A +0.01 (−0.32…+0.46) / sky B +0.07 (−0.13…+0.33). The minimum detectable ΔkT: 0.43 keV is only the Gaussian approximation (1.96·σ of the null ΔkT); under the pre-declared non-parametric definition (50 % power, 95 % interval) both methods exceed 0.50 keV (not reached up to +0.50) → a 0.1 keV decision is out of reach with the existing data. The two methods are one projection applied twice (the same MOS2 spectra). Sky B is post hoc and was fitted on the same 8–10′ spectrum (profiled, S's interval is −0.054…≥+0.535, its upper end open); one camera only. An independent expert re-derivation (Opus, D59a) confirms AMBIGUOUS (.agent/jobs/2026-10-17-stage5-expert-rederivation/REPORT.opus.md, R042/D82). The next step is proposal P23 (the last row of this table): MOS2+pn0 on 8–10′ with the sky fixed from the offset pointings 0501/0601, projected minimum detectable ≈ 0.3 keV (Provisional) → pending the PI. The P22 QPB re-check is pending (3 of 9 apertures regenerated and accepted, magnitude gate R = 0.88–0.95; the rest due about 10:05Z). Red team RT-39 (the stage-5 verdict's wording, 2026-10-17, reported, not yet triaged) filed 12 objections and not one overturns AMBIGUOUS: all three D55 gates (RISE's lower bound, NO RESOLVED RISE's upper bound, PROJECTION-COMPATIBLE's trigger) fail as literally written, so AMBIGUOUS stands; what changes is the reason and the wording — (a) "0.43 keV is the minimum detectable value at 50 % power" does not hold (the measured power tops out at 19 % at Δ = +0.50, and the executor's own JSON has an empty 50 %-power field); (b) sky B's 95 % lower bound swings between −0.0150…+0.0135 keV with the interpolation grid (Δχ²(0) straddles the 3.84 gate between 3.22 and 4.31) → "it missed the gate by 0.004 keV" has no error bar; (c) the "primary sky B" is itself a fit on the 8–10′ annulus (not an independent determination), so that 0.004 keV margin is inherited from that circularity; (d) 41.8 % of the outer hardness estimator's 95 % samples are clipped at the inversion branch ends (0.45/1.22 keV), so about 1/3 of σ_D is design, not data; (e) a QPB scale sweep (×0.80–1.40, executed) shows sky A's ΔkT flips sign at ×0.85 (−0.006 keV) and swings ±0.10 keV for a ±10 % QPB change, while sky B stays +0.129…+0.228 → "the QPB anchor systematic ≈ 0" is too strong; (f) the 2T arm died only on a parameter bound (kT2 pinned at the pre-registered 5 keV cap) with 3 of its 4 acceptance criteria met; (g) the inner R2-4 one-temperature fit is itself formally rejected (p = 0.010 sky B / 0.019 sky A) → ΔkT's interval may be too narrow; (h) E049's breached-control list omits one arm (sky A's sky-norm ×1.2, S: −0.114 keV). → the verdict is unchanged, but all of this enters E049's wording and limits list; triage pending. Other red teams: RT-33/RT-34/RT-35 → R038/D78; RT-36 (the P19/P20 designs) died without a report; RT-37 (Q-B vs the literature, 7 material) and RT-38 (the P19/P21 designs, 7 objections) were triaged at 10:14Z → R044/D84; RT-40 (the P22 bundle) and RT-41 (the folded-map statistic) are running. See "Research progress" on this page and state §5 阶段 5 = D55(E049);D80/D82;R040/R042;P23 待定 PIstage 5 = D55 (E049); D80/D82; R040/R042; P23 pending the PI AMBIGUOUS(功率不足)AMBIGUOUS (underpowered)
v18 的 as-run 能段(0.375–9.0 keV)与损坏的 RASS 过滤器对已存 kT 的影响(B025) The effect of v18's as-run band (0.375–9.0 keV) and the broken RASS filter on the saved kT (B025) 所有引用 v18 温度的数字都建立在这个合同上;合同此前被误述为 0.4–3.2 keV,而 3.2–9 keV 的影响从未测量 Every number quoting a v18 temperature rests on this contract; the contract was mis-stated as 0.4–3.2 keV and the effect of the 3.2–9 keV range was never measured as run:源 0.375–9.0 keV、背景 0.375–6.23 keV(Sherpa notice/ignore 取并集,RT-18 从保存会话重放证实);SrcPo 不在拟合表达式里;RASS 过滤器损坏(21.9% 的 noticed 信号落在原定 0.2 keV 以下,未重放);16/65 个已存 kT 的 conf() 区间越出参数界 → 无效 As run: source 0.375–9.0 keV, background 0.375–6.23 keV (Sherpa's notice/ignore take a union; RT-18 confirmed this by replaying the saved session); SrcPo is absent from the fitted expression; the RASS filter is corrupt (21.9 % of its noticed signal lies below the intended 0.2 keV, not yet replayed); 16/65 saved kT conf() intervals extend outside the parameter bounds → invalid P16:恢复 7 个会话并引用其 noticed 能段;重拟合 (a) as restored 复现已存 kT(±0.005 keV 内)、(b) 0.4–3.2 keV、(c) RASS 修复、(d) 两者都改,给出 keV 与 σ 的 ΔkT 表;初步结果:R2-4 A1 从 0.4–3.2 keV 改回 as-run 使 kT 变化 −0.021 keV,且已存会话不在其最小值(重拟合 −0.018 keV,stat 72.8 → 42.4) P16: restore 7 sessions with their noticed ranges quoted; refits (a) as restored reproduces the saved kT within 0.005 keV, (b) 0.4–3.2 keV, (c) RASS fixed, (d) both, with a ΔkT table in keV and σ; partial result: for R2-4 A1, going from 0.4–3.2 keV back to as-run changes kT by −0.021 keV, and the saved session is not at its minimum (the refit gives −0.018 keV, stat 72.8 → 42.4) P16(luna);B025;D65e;RT-18P16 (luna); B025; D65e; RT-18 待定 PendingPending
Chandra 匹配扇区重拟合(P19,运行中;已派 02:21Z,结果待定) A Chandra matched-sector re-fit (P19, running; dispatched 02:21Z, result pending) Q-B 的 Chandra 半边目前既无匹配孔径也无功率:2–10′ 的“环”只有 35–62% 的部分环带,共同 kT 检验探不到 ΔkT ≲ 0.27 keV,逐 ObsID 的空白天 α 相差 10% 未传播,拟合能段也与 XMM as-run 不同(R028/D69) The Chandra half of Q-B currently has neither a matched aperture nor the power: the 2–10′ "rings" are only 35–62 % partial annuli, the common-kT test cannot detect a ΔkT below ≈ 0.27 keV, the two ObsIDs' blank-sky α differ by 10 % unpropagated, and the fit band differs from XMM's as-run band (R028/D69) 按 XMM 足迹的扇区重拟合 Chandra(α 传播、能段匹配)→ 才能说 Chandra 证实或否证 XMM 的外升。运行中,尚无数字;已收到预先补充(D81)与红队 RT-38 的设计异议(2026-10-17,已分诊 → R043/R044/D83/D84):(a) “both”(9532 与 9533 足迹的交集)臂在 8–10′ 只占名义环带的 4.1%(4.687 / 113.10 arcmin²,12 个方位 bin 里只有 4 个有事件)、6–8′ 占 23.8% —— 按 brief 自己“< 30% 即判 not matched”的规则,这两环的“both”臂本就不可匹配,而 brief 没写这种情况该怎么办;(b) 执行器重建 QPB 用的 14 个 ff_ccd*.pi 全部计数为零(把 Chandra 探测器坐标的多边形 AND 进了 XMM 的 evselect 表达式)→ 分派方重放确认,但执行者自己已发现并丢弃了它们(原因归属不一致,见 08_RUNNING.md 08:28Z 分诊注);(c) α 不能被同时设定为“自由参数 + 高斯先验”,因为继承的拟合器把 α 固定并折进 bg.exposure。→ 结果待定,本手册不引它的数字 Re-fit Chandra on XMM-footprint sectors (α propagated, band-matched) → only then can Chandra be said to corroborate or refute the XMM rise. Running, no numbers yet; it has the pre-result addendum (D81) and red team RT-38's design objections (2026-10-17, triaged → R043/R044/D83/D84): (a) the "both" (the intersection of the 9532 and 9533 footprints) arm covers only 4.1 % of the nominal 8–10′ annulus (4.687 of 113.10 arcmin², with events in only 4 of 12 position-angle bins) and 23.8 % at 6–8′ — by the brief's own "< 30 % → not matched" rule those rings' "both" arms are not matched to begin with, and the brief never says what to do then; (b) all 14 ff_ccd*.pi spectra the executor rebuilt the QPB from have zero counts (the Chandra detector-frame polygons were ANDed into the XMM evselect expression) → replayed by the dispatcher, but the executor had already found and discarded them (the cause attribution disagrees; see the 08:28Z triage note in 08_RUNNING.md); (c) α cannot be both "a free parameter with a Gaussian prior" and what the inherited fitter does, which fixes α and folds it into bg.exposure. → the result is pending, and this handbook quotes none of its numbers P19;D75/D81/D83;D69;RT-23/R028;RT-38/R044P19; D75/D81/D83; D69; RT-23/R028; RT-38/R044 待定 PendingPending
as-run 能段的 mask 阶梯重拟合(P20,已完成 2026-10-17 06:45Z;E048/T173/R039/D79) An as-run-band refit of the mask ladder (P20, done 2026-10-17 06:45Z; E048/T173/R039/D79) D64“保留全套 v2 mask”的判定不变,但支撑它的“不用全套点源 mask 会偏 +0.2 keV”是在 0.4–3.2 keV 上量的,而 v18 as-run notice 0.375–9.0 keV;被 mask 挡掉的主要是 M104 自身的光与恒星,机制未被证明(R030/D70) D64's verdict "keep the full v2 mask" stands, but the "+0.2 keV bias without the full point mask" that supports it was measured on 0.4–3.2 keV while v18 as run notices 0.375–9.0 keV; what the mask removes is mostly M104's own light and stars, so the mechanism is unproven (R030/D70) 结果(Provisional 暂定,一个孔径):在真实拟合能段 0.375–9.0 keV 上,只遮延展源+恒星仍把 R2-4_Angle1 的 kT 推高——ΔkT(M3−M0) = +0.287(AGN 注入)/ +0.279(纯热,源幂律按 v18 冻结在 0),而早期阶梯能段(0.4–3.2 keV)上是 +0.225 / +0.172 → D64(保留全套 v2 点源 mask)在 as-run 能段上被确认并加强。机制仍被质疑(Questioned):自由源幂律那一臂把偏差降到 +0.031 / +0.022,但该臂 65.5% / 24.5% 的自助抽样压在幂律 norm 上限 1e-5(冻结臂则是 82% / 54% 压在 kT 上界 1.0 keV)→ 自由幂律的读数不可解读;R4-6_Angle2 的热臂在所有臂里都失败(−0.06)。尚无正常/专家对照臂(D79:不阻塞)。 — cognition-os/experiments/E048_*.md Result (Provisional, one aperture): on the real fitting band 0.375–9.0 keV, masking only extended sources + stars still biases R2-4_Angle1's kT upward — ΔkT(M3−M0) = +0.287 (AGN-injected) / +0.279 (thermal-only, with the source power law frozen at 0 as v18 does), against +0.225 / +0.172 on the earlier ladder band (0.4–3.2 keV) → D64 (keep the full v2 point mask) is CONFIRMED and strengthened on the as-run band. The mechanism stays Questioned: the free-source-power-law arm reduces the bias to +0.031 / +0.022, but in that arm 65.5 % / 24.5 % of the bootstrap draws sit at the power-law norm ceiling 1e-5 (the frozen arm has 82 % / 54 % at the kT upper bound 1.0 keV) → the free-power-law reading is not interpretable; R4-6_Angle2's thermal arm fails in every arm (−0.06). There is still no normal/expert control arm (D79: not blocking). — cognition-os/experiments/E048_*.md P20;E048/T173;R039;D79P20; E048/T173; R039; D79 Provisional 暂定Provisional
钉住 v18 世代后重跑 Angle1(P21,已完成 2026-10-17 14:34Z;E050/T175/R049/D89,Provisional) Re-run Angle1 once one v18 generation is pinned (P21, done 2026-10-17 14:34Z; E050/T175/R049/D89, Provisional) Q-C 的图/v18 比值分支:P21 之前不可检验(R7-9 Angle1 没有 .fitting 会话、R9-11 Angle1 有三代且 CSV 比可重放会话高 58%、R11-13/R12-14 不显著;可复现的 Angle2 是平的 1.26 → 1.18,R033/D73) Q-C's image/v18 ratio branch: before P21 it was untestable (R7-9 Angle1 has no .fitting session, R9-11 Angle1 exists in three generations with the CSV 58 % above the replayable session, and R11-13/R12-14 are non-significant; the reproducible Angle2 is flat at 1.26 → 1.18, R033/D73) 已完成(2026-10-17 14:34Z 分诊,R049/D89,Provisional):先在每个区域钉住一个 v18 世代(sha 清单),再在钉住的合同上重跑 Angle1 R7-9…R12-14,并把 Angle2 与 Angle1 并列报告(D73)。image/v18 比值没有任何 ≥2σ 的径向上升——ratio_deabsorbed R7-9 0.929、R9-11 1.477、R11-13 1.369,计数空间闭合(目标 1)1.018 ± 1.185 / 1.639 ± 1.406 / 3.617 ± 5.198,R7-9→R9-11 的台阶只有 0.34σ(每一步都 <0.5σ);R12-14 未定义(image_SB −1.09e-16,非探测);归档的 3.32 来自一个不可重放的世代。分派方重放 MANIFEST 202/202 OK。这是"没有超出证据",不是"比值 = 1"——误差棒和信号一样大。后续红队(RT-44 → R051/D91;P24 → R052/D92;P25 → R053/D93):(i) 构造被质疑(Questioned)——R7-9 的两台相机逐相机闭合 1.311(mos1)vs 0.737(mos2),公布的 1.018 只是两个散差的简单平均,因此"闭合 1.018 证明天空扣除正确"这条论证已撤回;P24 重放显示该差别 0.574 ± 0.511 = 1.1σ,是泊松散差被净/总计数比(净只有总的 13–21%)放大,不是校准分歧("相机不一致"的说法也已撤回);(ii) 绝对 image/v18 比值仍未定——天空模型 vs 经验天空把 R7-9 的比值从 0.93 移到 1.77,因此不引任何绝对比值(D89a/D92a);阶段 2 的 1.878 与本任务的 0.834 相差 ≈2.25× 未调和;(iii) 判定"没有 ≥2σ 径向上升"保持 Provisional(一台相机、构造被质疑;按逆方差加权的台阶 +0.9σ / +0.8σ)。遗留 caveat:Angle1 的 R2-4…R6-8 与 Angle2 对照没有拟合;R9-11 的 kT 对起点敏感且被截顶,R11-13 双峰(比值 1.369…3.43);B029:P21 的脚本给 mos2 用了 mos1 的线集(0.7–1.0 keV 上影响可忽略,见 §5 P25 行)。历史记录(红队 RT-38 的设计异议,已分诊 → R043/R044/D83/D84;这些缺陷在 P21 的最终交付前已被执行者修正):所谓“钉住的世代”一度没有 manifest 文件、4 个目标区域缺 _params.txt 等文本产品(FAST_MODE=1 提前 sys.exit(0));第一份比值表的 image_SB 全是负的(单位错误,B028)→ 该表已废弃,本手册不引它的数字。 — cognition-os/experiments/E050_p21_pinned_v18_angle1_image_ratio.md;07_REVISION_LOG.md R049/R051/R052/R053;04_DECISION_LOG.md D89/D91/D92/D93 Done (triaged 2026-10-17 14:34Z, R049/D89, Provisional): first pin one v18 generation per region (a sha manifest), then re-run Angle1 R7-9…R12-14 on the pinned contract and report Angle2 next to Angle1 (D73). The image/v18 ratio shows no ≥2σ rise with radius — ratio_deabsorbed R7-9 0.929, R9-11 1.477, R11-13 1.369; the count-space closure (target 1) is 1.018 ± 1.185 / 1.639 ± 1.406 / 3.617 ± 5.198, and the R7-9→R9-11 step is only 0.34σ (every step <0.5σ); R12-14 is undefined (image_SB −1.09e-16, a non-detection); the archived 3.32 came from an unreplayable generation. The dispatcher replayed MANIFEST 202/202 OK. This is "no evidence for an excess", not "the ratio = 1" — the error bars are as large as the signal. Follow-up red teams (RT-44 → R051/D91; P24 → R052/D92; P25 → R053/D93): (i) the construction is Questioned — at R7-9 the two cameras' per-camera closures are 1.311 (mos1) vs 0.737 (mos2), and the published 1.018 is only a plain mean of two scatters, so the argument "closure 1.018 confirms a single, correct sky subtraction" is withdrawn; P24's replay shows the difference is 0.574 ± 0.511 = 1.1σ, i.e. Poisson scatter amplified by the net/gross ratio (net is only 13–21 % of gross), not a calibration disagreement (the "cameras disagree" wording is also withdrawn); (ii) the absolute image/v18 ratio is still undetermined — sky model vs empirical sky moves the R7-9 ratio from 0.93 to 1.77, so no absolute ratio is quoted (D89a/D92a); stage 2's 1.878 vs this job's 0.834 differ by ≈2.25×, unreconciled; (iii) the verdict "no ≥2σ radial rise" stays Provisional (one method, construction Questioned; inverse-variance-weighted steps +0.9σ / +0.8σ). Open caveats: Angle1's R2-4…R6-8 and the Angle2 controls were not fitted; R9-11's kT is start-point sensitive and cap-truncated, R11-13 is bimodal (ratio 1.369…3.43); B029: P21's script used the mos1 line set for mos2 (negligible at 0.7–1.0 keV; see the P25 §5 row). Historical note (red team RT-38's design objections, triaged → R043/R044/D83/D84; these defects were fixed by the executor before P21's final delivery): the "pinned generation" at one point had no manifest and all 4 target regions lacked _params.txt-type text products (FAST_MODE=1 sys.exit(0)s early); the first ratio table had negative image_SB in all four regions (a unit error, B028) → that table is Deprecated and this handbook quotes none of its numbers. — cognition-os/experiments/E050_p21_pinned_v18_angle1_image_ratio.md; 07_REVISION_LOG.md R049/R051/R052/R053; 04_DECISION_LOG.md D89/D91/D92/D93 P21;E050/T175;R049/R051/R052/R053;D89/D91/D92/D93;RT-44;P24/P25P21; E050/T175; R049/R051/R052/R053; D89/D91/D92/D93; RT-44; P24/P25 Provisional 暂定(构造 Questioned)Provisional (construction Questioned)
给 Q-B 增加检验功率(提案 P23;建议(未经评审),待定 PI) Add power to the Q-B test (proposed P23; suggestion (not reviewed), pending the PI) 阶段 5 的判定是 AMBIGUOUS,而且功率不足:按预先声明的非参数定义,两种方法的最小可探测 ΔkT 都 > 0.50 keV,而 0.10 keV 的门低了一个量级;用现有数据无法裁决 0.1 keV 量级的问题(E049/T174/R040/D80,R042/D82) Stage 5's verdict is AMBIGUOUS and underpowered: under the pre-declared non-parametric definition both methods' minimum detectable ΔkT exceeds 0.50 keV, an order of magnitude above the 0.10 keV gate; the existing data cannot decide a 0.1 keV-scale question (E049/T174/R040/D80, R042/D82) P23 的形状(D95,2026-10-17 20:53Z 重排;Provisional 暂定,统计投影):“先用偏置指向 0501/0601 固定天空”已撤回(R055/D95,RT-46 终审 6 条实质异议)——v18 把 BKG_OBSID = '0900170701' 硬编码在源码里,每个环的天空/背景参考本来就是 0701 空白天空场,不是偏置指向:MOS2 Fe-L 总计数(PI 140-174/175-209)在 0701 是 3634/3358(89.0 ks),而 0501 R15-20 只有 169/125(85.8 ks)——最好的偏置环比已在用的场还弱 ≥3×,R15-20 弱 21×(分派方重放)。偏置指向另有四个问题:距中心历元 187/193 天(SWCX)、mask 是另一种类型(2640 椭圆 vs 5616 圆)、8-10′ 无覆盖、35-40′/40-45′ 环带携带 +11σ/+3.9σ 的正晕面亮度(不是天空);且天空项只占 S 区间宽度的 ~28%(点移 0.069 keV),而 Fe-L 泊松项是 0.22 keV、门对照散差 0.11–0.20 keV → “偏置优先”不是决定性的一步。给 PI 的三个选项(D95):(a) 接受 Q-B 判 AMBIGUOUS——现有数据无法在 ≈0.3–0.5 keV 以下裁决;(b) 加 MOS1+pn0 或放宽到 8-12′——信息增益 1.44(总计数)/ 1.91(净计数)(不是 Opus 的 2.66),预期最小可探测 0.31–0.36 keV(Provisional,统计投影;仍远大于 0.10 keV 的门,需新的预注册),且加功率只把区间变窄,本身不把 AMBIGUOUS 变成 RISE——14 个门对照自己就把 ΔkT 移动 0.11–0.20 keV(RT-42 OBJ-4);(c) 增加曝光:不可得。PI 尚未被问过;0701 自身是否含延展发射未检验(RT-49 正在查)。最便宜的决定性天空检验是对另一个孔径做留出天空拟合(RT-46 OBJ-4,由分派方/执行者在 RT-49 之后重跑)。 — 07_REVISION_LOG.md R055;04_DECISION_LOG.md D95;cognition-os/experiments/E049_stage5_D55_matched_contract.md P23's shape (D95, re-ordered 2026-10-17 20:53Z; Provisional, a statistical projection): "first fix the sky from the offset pointings 0501/0601" is WITHDRAWN (R055/D95, 6 material objections in RT-46's final report) — v18 hard-codes BKG_OBSID = '0900170701' in its source, so the sky/background reference of every annulus is already the blank-sky field 0701, not the offset pointings: MOS2 Fe-L gross counts (PI 140-174/175-209) are 3634/3358 in 0701 (89.0 ks), against only 169/125 in 0501 R15-20 (85.8 ks) — the best offset annulus is ≥3× weaker than the field already in use and R15-20 is 21× weaker (dispatcher replay). The offsets have four further problems: they are 187/193 days from the central epoch (SWCX), their mask is another kind (2640 ellipses vs 5616 circles), they have no coverage at 8–10′, and the 35–40′/40–45′ annuli carry positive halo surface brightness of +11σ/+3.9σ (not sky); and the sky term is only ~28 % of the S-interval width (point shift 0.069 keV), while the Fe-L Poisson term is 0.22 keV and the gate-control spread is 0.11–0.20 keV → "offsets first" is not the decisive step. Three options for the PI (D95): (a) accept AMBIGUOUS for Q-B — the existing data cannot decide below ≈0.3–0.5 keV; (b) add MOS1+pn0 or widen to 8–12′ — information gain 1.44 (gross counts) / 1.91 (net counts) (not Opus's 2.66), projected minimum detectable 0.31–0.36 keV (Provisional, statistical projection; still far above the 0.10 keV gate and needing a new pre-registration), and more power only narrows the interval — it does not by itself turn AMBIGUOUS into RISE — the 14 gate controls alone move ΔkT by 0.11–0.20 keV (RT-42 OBJ-4); (c) more exposure: not available. The PI has NOT been asked yet; whether 0701 itself contains extended emission is untested (RT-49 is checking). The cheapest decisive sky check is a hold-out sky fit on another aperture (RT-46 OBJ-4, to be re-run by the dispatcher/an executor after RT-49). — 07_REVISION_LOG.md R055; 04_DECISION_LOG.md D95; cognition-os/experiments/E049_stage5_D55_matched_contract.md P23(建议,未经评审);D82d;E049/T174P23 (suggestion, not reviewed); D82d; E049/T174 待定 PendingPending
Q-C:外环谱的拟合方法;15–30′ 对比(R′)不可测 Q-C: the outer-ring spectral fit method; the 15–30′ comparison (R′) not testable 13′ 假象已定性(I065),但外环(10–14′,FoV 边缘 ~50% 被裁)的谱点仍不可用:kT 上限撞 1 keV 参数顶、源/背景简并 The 13′ artefact is characterised (I065), but the outer-ring (10–14′, ~50% clipped at the FoV edge) spectral points remain unusable: kT upper limits hit the 1 keV ceiling, source/background degenerate 归一错误 + 弱信号简并(I065,Provisional)。图内检验第三次确认无 13′ 超出(E041:R11–13/R9–11 = 0.949 ± 0.029 / 1.029 ± 0.037);图/v18 比值分支不可检验(RT-28/R033/D73,见本表 P21 行) Normalisation error + weak-signal degeneracy (I065, Provisional). The image-internal test confirms no 13′ excess for the third time (E041: R11–13/R9–11 = 0.949 ± 0.029 / 1.029 ± 0.037); the image/v18 ratio branch is untestable (RT-28/R033/D73, see the P21 row in this table) 更宽 kT 范围 + profile-likelihood 误差,或绑定/正则化径向模型,或用偏置指向(0900170501/0601) Wider kT range + profile-likelihood errors, or a tied/regularised radial model, or the offset pointings (0900170501/0601) Q-C 后续(并入 Virgo 再抽谱 D47)Q-C follow-up (folded into the Virgo re-reduction D47) OpenOpen
Q-D:2D 温度图(等 Q-A) Q-D: the 2D temperature map (waits for Q-A) feedback 与引力束缚气体的区分需要 2D 温度 Separating feedback from bound gas needs a 2D temperature field 按 D49 探索:窄带比值代理(Fe-L 硬度等)+ 自适应网格(WVT/共享核)+ 象限锚定;验收 = 形态保真度(均匀真值不出假结构、注入结构原位恢复、≥2 相机/方案一致),整体可控偏差可接受;谱拟合 3–4 个关键 bin 作校验 Explore per D49: narrow-band ratio proxies (e.g. Fe-L hardness) + adaptive grids (WVT/shared kernel) + quadrant anchors; acceptance = morphology fidelity (uniform truth → no spurious structure, injected structure recovered in place, consistent across ≥2 cameras/schemes), an overall controlled bias acceptable; spectral fits of 3–4 key bins as checks 亮度图已完成(阶段 2:v2-mask MOS2、QPB+天空扣除、β 残差与扇区对比,E042);2D kT 阶段 3 已完成(E043:估计器 E3 + cone45,双臂一致,共同足迹 56%);生产图(P12/E045)首批已出(读数:2–5′ 无小轴 vs 盘对比、内区 N−S +0.10 keV 提示,仅一种方法;东箭头方向缺陷修正中,修好前不展示该图)→ 待定;区域设计建议 cone45 bin;全套 v2 mask 保留(R020/D64)。当前最佳数字(折叠图,E046/T171,Provisional 暂定):四象限折叠的 2D kT 图 v2 给出 2–12′ 的逐箱 kT 中位带 0.70–0.80 keV(逐箱范围 0.53–0.89 keV,全局 0.736 keV,8/21 箱在带外——措辞按 RT-20/D68/R025 收窄)、全角度斜率 +0.009 keV/角分(95 % [−0.003, +0.020],+1.5σ)→ 对这种单温代理而言无 ≥ 2σ 的内冷外热;每 5′ 升 0.1 keV 的梯度在 E046 的单温代理注入里 91% 的次数能被找回(仅这一个温代理的自检;与真实逐楔 2–8′ 检验对应的统计量在 E047 端到端模拟里功率只有 27–36%,所以这 91% 不是探测功率);盘楔外箱 0.85–0.88 vs 小轴楔 0.61–0.77 keV 只是提示(≈ 1.4σ);MOS2 与 pn0 逐箱一致(p = 0.60);pn0 QPB 缩放(测试用)会把斜率推到 ≈ 2σ → 趋势对背景敏感;< 2′ 核被 mask 遮住,冷却流不可检验(D66/P18 待定);E045 的内区 N−S 提示降为 Questioned(R022) The intensity map is done (stage 2: v2-masked MOS2, QPB + sky subtracted, β residuals and sector contrasts, E042); 2D kT stage 3 is done (E043: estimator E3 + cone45, both arms agree, common footprint 56 %); the first production maps (P12/E045) are out (readings: no minor-axis vs disk contrast at 2–5′, an inner N−S +0.10 keV hint, one method only; the East-arrow direction defect is being fixed and the map is not shown until it is) → pending; the region design recommends cone45 bins; the full v2 mask stays (R020/D64). Current best number (the folded map, E046/T171, Provisional): the four-quadrant-folded 2D kT map v2 gives a median per-bin kT band of 0.70–0.80 keV over 2–12′ (per-bin range 0.53–0.89 keV; global 0.736 keV; 8/21 bins outside the band — wording narrowed per RT-20/D68/R025) and an all-angle slope of +0.009 keV/arcmin (95 % [−0.003, +0.020], +1.5σ) → no inner-cool/outer-hot trend at ≥ 2σ for this one-temperature proxy; a gradient of +0.1 keV per 5′ is recovered 91 % of the time in E046's own one-temperature-proxy injection (that proxy's self-test only; the statistic matching the real per-wedge 2–8′ test has a power of only 27–36 % in the E047 end-to-end mock, so this 91 % is not a detection power); the disk wedge's outer cells 0.85–0.88 vs the minor wedge 0.61–0.77 keV are suggestive only (≈ 1.4σ); MOS2 and pn0 agree bin by bin (p = 0.60); the pn0 QPB scaling (test-only) pushes the slope to ≈ 2σ → the trend is background-sensitive; the core inside 2′ is masked, so a cooling flow is untestable here (D66/P18 pending); E045's inner N−S hint is downgraded to Questioned (R022) E038/E042/E043/E046;P12 生产图;P15 折叠图 v2E038/E042/E043/E046; P12 production maps; P15 folded map v2 待定 PendingPending
MOS1 静态(非耀发)硬过剩:每个指向都偏高 MOS1 quiescent (non-flare) hard excess: high in every pointing MOS1 参与所有 v18 拟合;若其背景模型欠 5–20%,会偏置 kT MOS1 enters every v18 fit; a 5–20% background underestimate would bias kT 静态 SP 成分或 MOS1 参考系统误差(成因 Questioned) A quiescent SP component or MOS1 reference systematics (cause Questioned) Q-A 阶段 2:MOS1-free vs MOS1-with-extra-SP 拟合对比(I066) Q-A stage 2: MOS1-free vs MOS1-with-extra-SP fit tests (I066) I066/T151;Q-A 后续I066/T151; Q-A follow-up ProvisionalProvisional
点源/星系团遮蔽无法把残余压到 <5% Point-source/cluster masking cannot push residuals below 5% 弱晕区(R11-13 Angle2 残余/晕比当前 3.6)做任何温度测量前必须先处理残余 Before any temperature measurement in the faint-halo region (residual/halo currently 3.6 in R11-13 Angle2), the residual must be handled PSF 翼与星系团发射遮不掉(E035;mask 规则 v2 后残余/晕比仍 ≈0.37,相对 v18 局部晕面亮度——0.95 只是相对 v2 晕律,该晕律比 v18 暗 2.59×,RT-05 修订 R008/RT-32 的 OBJ-7) PSF wings and cluster emission are not maskable (E035; after mask rule v2 the residual/halo ratio is still ≈0.37 relative to the v18 local halo surface brightness — 0.95 holds only relative to the v2 halo law, which is 2.59× fainter than v18; RT-05 amendment R008 / RT-32's OBJ-7) 建模残余:星系团作为 APEC 成分 + 空间加权残余模型;固定 CXB 归一须与 mask 流量阈值匹配(E035) Model the residual: the cluster as an APEC component + a spatially weighted residual model; the fixed CXB normalisation must match the mask flux cut (E035) E035;Virgo 再抽谱 D47E035; the Virgo re-reduction D47 ProvisionalProvisional
Virgo 再抽谱计划(D47) The Virgo re-reduction plan (D47) B020/I065/E035 的修正(正确 SB、mask v2、建模残余)都要落到新的提取产品上 The corrections from B020/I065/E035 (correct SB, mask v2, modelled residual) must land in new extraction products 以 v1.7.8 基线复现为对照,每阶段只改一个设计元素 Reproduce the v1.7.8 baseline as the control, then change one design element per stage S0 基线复现已 PASS(事件级复现,E040);阶段 1 完成但口径谱只有自动 mask(B023)→ 阶段 1b 重抽 v2-mask 口径谱:已于 2026-10-17 02:45Z 交付、门 2 通过(D76c:9/9 口径、MANIFEST 506/506 OK、BACKSCAL 真实、REG 身份 PASS),但交付的 QPB 大 1e6–1e7 倍(B026/R037/D77)→ mask/口径/响应被接受、QPB 不被接受。P22 的 QPB 重生成已于 2026-10-17 11:04Z 被接受(R045/D85):9/9 个口径通过量级门(R = 0.884–1.005,门 0.8–1.3),MANIFEST 776/776 项 OK;2 个口径与 Sonnet 的推导修复相差 >3%(R4-6_Angle1 +5.56%、R6-8_Angle2 +3.04% —— 锚点分散,Provisional)。阶段 5b(在重新生成的 QPB 上重跑)已于 12:48Z 分诊(R046/D86):判定 AMBIGUOUS 不变,天空 B 的 ΔkT +0.1886 → +0.1982(−0.034…+0.478),QPB 构造系统误差 0.010 keV;derived-QPB 标签对天空 B 的 S4/H 已退役(D86),但 RT-39 O10 的 QPB 尺度扫描(×0.80–1.40)显示天空 A 在 ×0.85 翻号、天空 B 保持 +0.129…+0.228(±0.05 keV)→ 该项仍未量化。qpbfix bundle 按 D88d 已设为只读。Bundle 完整性教训(B027):交付 bundle 里的一个 events 文件曾被发现被清空并已恢复(04:42:38Z);阶段 5 不受影响(它用到的事件派生项在 03:59–04:01Z 就已完成)。按 D81,P22 重新交付后该 bundle 会被 chmod -R a-w The s0 baseline reproduction PASSed (event-level reproduction, E040); stage 1 finished but its aperture spectra carry only the automatic mask (B023) → stage 1b re-extracts the v2-masked aperture spectra: delivered on 2026-10-17 02:45Z with gate 2 PASSED (D76c: 9/9 apertures, MANIFEST 506/506 OK, real BACKSCAL, REG identity PASS), but the delivered QPB is 1e6–1e7× too large (B026/R037/D77) → the masks/apertures/responses are accepted, the QPB is not. P22's QPB regeneration was accepted on 2026-10-17 11:04Z (R045/D85): 9 of 9 apertures pass the magnitude gate (R = 0.884–1.005, gate 0.8–1.3) and MANIFEST is 776/776 entries OK; 2 apertures differ from Sonnet's derived repair by more than 3 % (R4-6_Angle1 +5.56 %, R6-8_Angle2 +3.04 % — anchor spread, Provisional). Stage 5b (the re-run on the regenerated QPB) was triaged at 12:48Z (R046/D86): the AMBIGUOUS verdict is unchanged, sky B's ΔkT +0.1886 → +0.1982 (−0.034…+0.478), and the QPB-construction systematic is 0.010 keV; the derived-QPB label is retired for sky B's S4/H (D86), but RT-39 O10's QPB scale sweep (×0.80–1.40) shows sky A flipping sign at ×0.85 while sky B stays at +0.129…+0.228 (±0.05 keV) → that item remains unquantified. The qpbfix bundle is read-only per D88d. Bundle-integrity lesson (B027): one events file in the delivered bundle was found emptied and restored (04:42:38Z); stage 5 is unaffected (its events-derived items were done at 03:59–04:01Z). Per D81 the bundle gets chmod -R a-w once P22 re-delivers it job virgo-rereduction-s0;D47/D57/D77/D81/D85/D86/D88;B023/B026/B027;R045/R046/R048job virgo-rereduction-s0; D47/D57/D77/D81/D85/D86/D88; B023/B026/B027; R045/R046/R048 Provisional 暂定(QPB 尺度扫描仍开)Provisional (the QPB scale sweep stays open)

未来 1–4 周计划

Plan for the next 1–4 weeks

计划完全来自 cognition-os/02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md 与各 job 的 BRIEF/REPORT,不是本手册的发明。2026-10-17 19:41Z 更新:Q-B 的决定性检验(D55 预注册的匹配合同测试)已完成,判定 = AMBIGUOUS(含糊)——功率不足,不是"没有上升"(2026-10-17 07:15Z,E049/T174/R040/D80;Provisional 暂定)。谱拟合 S4 的 ΔkT(8–10′−2–4′) = +0.13(天空 A,95% −0.21…+0.42)/ +0.19(天空 B,−0.004…+0.42),Fe-L 硬度 +0.01(−0.32…+0.46)/ +0.07(−0.13…+0.33);最小可探测 ΔkT 的 0.43 keV 只是高斯近似,按预先声明的非参数定义(50% 功率、95% 区间)两种方法都 > 0.50 keV(R042/D82)。独立专家复核(Opus,D59a)确认 AMBIGUOUS。阶段 5b(在重新生成的 QPB 上重跑)已于 12:48Z 分诊:判定不变(R046/D86)——天空 B 的 ΔkT +0.1886 → +0.1982(−0.034…+0.478),QPB 构造系统误差 0.010 keV;P22 重新生成的 QPB 已于 11:04Z 被接受(9/9 口径过量级门,R 0.884–1.005,R045/D85)。下一步 = 提案 P23(尚未经 PI 批准,未启动):形状已按 R048/D88 重排——先用偏置指向 0501/0601 测天空(零新增曝光,但这些产品是旧 mask 合同,必须先按 v2 重新归约 = P5),MOS1/pn 口径没有申请;Opus 的 MOS2+pn0 8–12′ 信息增益 2.66 是错的,RT-42 重放给出 1.44(总计数)/ 1.91(净计数),对应最小可探测 0.36 / 0.31 keV(不是 0.26)→ 引用 0.31–0.36 keV(D88c);加功率只把区间变窄,本身不把 AMBIGUOUS 变成 RISE——14 个门对照自己就把 ΔkT 移动 0.11–0.20 keV(RT-42 OBJ-4)。P20 已完成(E048/T173/R039/D79):在真实能段 0.375–9.0 keV 上,只遮延展源+恒星仍把 R2-4_Angle1 的 kT 推高 +0.287(AGN 注入)/ +0.279(纯热)→ 全套 v2 点源 mask 保留(机制仍被质疑)。P21 已完成(E050/T175/R049/D89):钉住一个 v18 世代后,image/v18 比值 没有任何 ≥2σ 的径向上升(0.929 / 1.477 / 1.369,每步 <0.5σ,R12-14 未定义),归档的 3.32 来自不可重放的世代;绝对量与阶段 2 差 ≈2.25× 未调和。P19 运行中(预先补充 D81,结果待定)。Chandra-only 与单一温度 0.725 keV 一致(D56/D61),"合同不匹配"表述已撤回(R009);Q-D:2D 强度阶段 2 完成(E042/R016:2–5′ 不对称与 β 椭圆率一致,≥+30% 双锥被排除),2D kT 阶段 3 完成(E043/R018:估计器 E3 + cone45,双臂一致,共同足迹 56%),折叠图 v2 已出(E046/T171),生产图的东箭头缺陷未修好、总览图不展示;红队 RT-01…RT-45 已分诊(43 支),RT-36 无报告死亡(由 RT-38 取代)、RT-33 无异议死亡(由 RT-35 重试)、RT-46/RT-47 首次启动即死后已重启(F037/F039)——没有“RT-44 启动即死”这回事(RT-45 的 OBJ-3 已订正:队列与 08_RUNNING 都记录 RT-44 于 13:40Z 启动并活跃)。RT-37(Li+2007 读作 "varying little",项目的台阶只 ≈0.8–1.0σ)、RT-38、RT-39、RT-40、RT-41(+2.19σ 是 13 个事后半径里的最大值,不显著)、RT-42、RT-43(P19 结果,16:21Z 分诊为 interim)、RT-44(P21 结果,17:13Z 分诊)、RT-45(本手册读者,18:06Z 分诊)均已分诊 → RT-46(偏置指向当天空,19:48Z 分诊 → R055/D95)、RT-47(P24/P25 结论,20:42Z 分诊 → R056/D96)均已分诊;RT-48(P19 的 XMM 腿)与 RT-49(Q-B 选项、天空场 0701 是否干净)运行中 → 待定。

The plan comes entirely from cognition-os/02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md and the job briefs/reports; it is not invented by this handbook. Update 2026-10-17 19:41Z: Q-B's decisive test (the D55 pre-registered matched-contract test) is done and its verdict is AMBIGUOUS — underpowered, not a "no rise" (2026-10-17 07:15Z, E049/T174/R040/D80; Provisional). The spectral fit S4's ΔkT(8–10′−2–4′) = +0.13 (sky A, 95 % −0.21…+0.42) / +0.19 (sky B, −0.004…+0.42) and the Fe-L hardness +0.01 (−0.32…+0.46) / +0.07 (−0.13…+0.33); the minimum detectable ΔkT's 0.43 keV is only the Gaussian approximation, and under the pre-declared non-parametric definition (50 % power, 95 % interval) both methods exceed 0.50 keV (R042/D82). An independent expert re-derivation (Opus, D59a) confirms AMBIGUOUS. Stage 5b (the re-run on the regenerated QPB) was triaged at 12:48Z: the verdict is unchanged (R046/D86) — sky B's ΔkT +0.1886 → +0.1982 (−0.034…+0.478) and the QPB-construction systematic is 0.010 keV; P22's regenerated QPB was accepted at 11:04Z (9/9 apertures pass the magnitude gate, R 0.884–1.005, R045/D85). The next step is proposal P23 (not yet approved by the PI, not started): its shape was re-ordered per R048/D88 — measure the sky from the offset pointings 0501/0601 first (zero new exposure, but those products are on the old-mask contract and must be re-reduced on v2 first = P5), and MOS1/pn apertures are not requested; Opus's MOS2+pn0 8–12′ information gain of 2.66 is wrong — RT-42's replay gives 1.44 (gross-count) / 1.91 (net-count), corresponding to a minimum detectable of 0.36 / 0.31 keV (not 0.26) → quote 0.31–0.36 keV (D88c); more power only narrows the interval — it does not by itself turn AMBIGUOUS into RISE, because the 14 gate controls themselves move ΔkT by 0.11–0.20 keV (RT-42 OBJ-4). P20 is done (E048/T173/R039/D79): on the real band 0.375–9.0 keV, masking only extended sources + stars still pushes R2-4_Angle1's kT up by +0.287 (AGN-injected) / +0.279 (thermal-only) → the full v2 point mask stays (the mechanism stays Questioned). P21 is done (E050/T175/R049/D89): with one v18 generation pinned, the image/v18 ratio shows no ≥2σ rise with radius (0.929 / 1.477 / 1.369, every step <0.5σ, R12-14 undefined), and the archived 3.32 came from an unreplayable generation; the absolute level differs from stage 2 by ≈2.25× and is unreconciled. P19 is running (pre-result addendum D81, results pending). Chandra-only is consistent with one temperature 0.725 keV (D56/D61) and the "contract mismatch" headline is withdrawn (R009); Q-D: 2D intensity stage 2 done (E042/R016: the 2–5′ asymmetry is consistent with β ellipticity, a ≥ +30 % bicone is excluded), 2D kT stage 3 done (E043/R018: estimator E3 + cone45, both arms agree, common footprint 56 %), the folded v2 map is out (E046/T171), the production map's east-arrow defect is not yet fixed so the overview figure is not shown; red teams RT-01…RT-45 are triaged (43); RT-36 died without a report (replaced by RT-38), RT-33 died without objections (retried as RT-35), and RT-46/RT-47 each died at their first launch and were relaunched (F037/F039) — there is no "RT-44 died at startup" (corrected by RT-45's OBJ-3: the queue and 08_RUNNING both record RT-44 as launched at 13:40Z and active); RT-37 (the Li+2007 reference reads "varying little" and this project's step is only ≈0.8–1.0σ), RT-38, RT-39, RT-40, RT-41 (the +2.19σ is the maximum over 13 post-hoc split radii and is not significant), RT-42, RT-43 (the P19 results, triaged as interim at 16:21Z), RT-44 (the P21 results, triaged 17:13Z) and RT-45 (this handbook as a reader, triaged 18:06Z) are all triaged, and RT-46 (the offset pointings as the sky; triaged 19:48Z → R055/D95) and RT-47 (the P24/P25 conclusions; triaged 20:42Z → R056/D96) are both triaged; RT-48 (the P19 XMM leg) and RT-49 (the Q-B options, and whether sky field 0701 is clean) are running → pending.

周Week 内容Content
11已完成:Q-A 清单、试点、阶段 2 全网格(4,800 拟合)→ MOS2 内区参考(D48/I067) Done: Q-A inventory, pilot, stage-2 full grid (4,800 fits) → MOS2 inner reference (D48/I067)
11已完成:Q-C 判为假象(I065);红队 RT-01 攻击中;15–45′ 轮廓 job 运行中 Done: Q-C judged an artefact (I065); red team RT-01 attacking; the 15–45′ profile job running
1–21–2已完成:Q-D 亮度图;2D 代理阶段 2(E038:联合 MOS2+pn0、校准对比区间、N>S 提示);下一步 = Virgo 阶段 1 谱检验(P3 check_N/S_R2-4.9) Done: the Q-D intensity map; 2D proxy stage 2 (E038: joint MOS2+pn0, calibrated contrast bounds, N>S a hint); next = the Virgo stage 1 spectral check (P3 check_N/S_R2-4.9)
1–21–2待匹配合同:谱 vs Fe-L 硬度分歧(I068/I070)不能在旧产品上裁决;只由 D55 预注册的匹配合同测试判定(阶段 1b 的 v2-mask 产品就绪后);0900170501/0601 ODF 已下载校验(22:50Z)→ 阶段 1b 通过后 Virgo 重处理(外区 profile) Awaiting the matched contract: the spectral vs Fe-L-hardness disagreement (I068/I070) cannot be settled on the old products; it is decided only by the D55 pre-registered matched-contract test (once the stage-1b v2-masked products exist); the 0900170501/0601 ODFs are downloaded and verified (22:50Z) → Virgo re-reduction for the outer profile after stage 1b passes
2–42–4Q-A 阶段 3/4 完成(S4 外区/边缘未合格 → 探索性,D51/D54);Virgo 阶段 1 完成但口径谱只有自动 mask(B023)→ 阶段 1b 重抽 v2-mask 口径谱:2026-10-17 02:45Z 已交付、门 2 通过(D76c:9/9 口径、MANIFEST 506/506 OK、BACKSCAL 真实、REG 身份 PASS),但交付的 QPB 大 1e6–1e7 倍(B026/R037/D77)→ mask/口径/响应被接受、QPB 不被接受;阶段 5 = 匹配合同测试(D55 预注册规则,已冻结)等阶段 1b;mask 阶梯"轻 mask"结论被 RT-17 推翻(R020/D64:全套 v2 mask 保留、阶段 B 取消);红队 RT-15/RT-16/RT-17 已分诊(D62/D63/R020),RT-18/RT-19 已分诊(B025/R023、R022/D65),RT-20/RT-21 运行中;P16 测量 as-run 能段与 RASS 过滤器对已存 kT 的影响(待定);P18 端到端模拟(含 S7 = PI 的冷却流情景)说明数据排除哪些冷却流版本(待定) Q-A stages 3–4 done (S4 outer/edge not qualified → exploratory, D51/D54); Virgo stage 1 finished but its aperture spectra carry only the automatic mask (B023) → stage 1b re-extracts the v2-masked aperture spectra: delivered 2026-10-17 02:45Z with gate 2 PASSED (D76c: 9/9 apertures, MANIFEST 506/506 OK, real BACKSCAL, REG identity PASS), but the delivered QPB is 1e6–1e7× too large (B026/R037/D77) → the masks/apertures/responses are accepted, the QPB is not; stage 5 = the matched-contract test (D55 pre-registered rule, frozen) waiting for stage 1b; the mask ladder's "lighter mask" conclusion was overturned by RT-17 (R020/D64: the full v2 mask stays, stage B cancelled); red teams RT-15/RT-16/RT-17 triaged (D62/D63/R020), RT-18/RT-19 triaged (B025/R023, R022/D65), RT-20/RT-21 running; P16 measures the effect of the as-run band and the RASS filter on the saved kT (pending); P18, the end-to-end mock (including S7, the PI's cooling-flow scenario), will say which cooling-flow versions the data exclude (pending)

本次更新

What's new

数据截至

Data as of

2026-10-17 19:41Z(cognition-os/sessions/2026-10-14.md 从 22:50Z 起加 sessions/2026-10-16.md 到 23:25Z 与 2026-10-17 节到 18:06Z 的全部条目;07_REVISION_LOG.md R013–R054;04_DECISION_LOG.md D55–D94;03_TRUST_TABLE.md T163–T176;08_RUNNING.md 18:06Z;REDTEAM_QUEUE.md RT-10…RT-47;E040–E052、B022–B029、references/literature_m104_hot_halo_2026-10-16.md;本手册读者级红队 RT-32 与 RT-45 的 REPORT.hermes.md / REPORT.codexnim.md)。运行中的 job(P19 的 Chandra 匹配扇区重拟合、红队 RT-48 与 RT-49)结果待定,本手册不引它们的数字;已完成并写入本页的:RT-20/R025/D68、RT-21/D67、RT-22/R027、RT-23/R028/D69、RT-24/R029/D70、RT-25/R030/D70、RT-26/R031/D71、RT-27/R032/D72、RT-28/R033/D73、RT-29/R034/D74、RT-30/R035/D74、RT-31/R036/D76、RT-32/R037/D77、RT-37/R044/D84、RT-38/R041/R043、RT-39/R045/D85、RT-40 与 RT-42/R048/D88、RT-41/R047/D87、RT-43(interim)/R050/D90、RT-44/R051/D91、RT-45/R054/D94、P16、P18 sol 臂(E047/T172/R026)、P20(E048/T173/R039/D79)、P21(E050/T175/R049/D89,后续 R051/R052/R053)、P22 与阶段 5b(R045/D85、R046/D86)、P24(E051/R052/D92)、P25(E052/R053/D93)、阶段 5(E049/T174/R040/D80)、冷启动演练 3。

2026-10-17 19:41Z (all cognition-os/sessions/2026-10-14.md entries from 22:50Z plus sessions/2026-10-16.md to 23:25Z and the 2026-10-17 section to 18:06Z; 07_REVISION_LOG.md R013–R054; 04_DECISION_LOG.md D55–D94; 03_TRUST_TABLE.md T163–T176; 08_RUNNING.md 18:06Z; REDTEAM_QUEUE.md RT-10…RT-47; E040–E052, B022–B029, references/literature_m104_hot_halo_2026-10-16.md; this handbook's own reader-level red teams RT-32 and RT-45, REPORT.hermes.md / REPORT.codexnim.md). The running jobs (P19's Chandra matched-sector re-fit and red teams RT-48 and RT-49) are pending, and this handbook quotes none of their numbers; done and written into this page: RT-20/R025/D68, RT-21/D67, RT-22/R027, RT-23/R028/D69, RT-24/R029/D70, RT-25/R030/D70, RT-26/R031/D71, RT-27/R032/D72, RT-28/R033/D73, RT-29/R034/D74, RT-30/R035/D74, RT-31/R036/D76, RT-32/R037/D77, RT-37/R044/D84, RT-38/R041/R043, RT-39/R045/D85, RT-40 and RT-42/R048/D88, RT-41/R047/D87, RT-43 (interim)/R050/D90, RT-44/R051/D91, RT-45/R054/D94, P16, P18's sol arm (E047/T172/R026), P20 (E048/T173/R039/D79), P21 (E050/T175/R049/D89, followed by R051/R052/R053), P22 and stage 5b (R045/D85, R046/D86), P24 (E051/R052/D92), P25 (E052/R053/D93), stage 5 (E049/T174/R040/D80) and cold-start drill 3.